How Investors May Respond To Vistra (VST) Securing Long-Term Nuclear Deal and Expanding Texas Gas Capacity

• In early October 2025, Vistra Corp. completed nearly US$1.25 billion in senior secured note offerings and secured a 20-year agreement to supply 1,200 megawatts of carbon-free nuclear power to a major investment-grade customer, while also expanding its Texas generation capacity with new advanced natural gas units.
• These developments signal Vistra’s focus on locking in long-term, stable revenue streams from both nuclear and gas resources, reinforcing its commitment to grid reliability and accelerating the clean energy transition in response to rapidly rising power demand.
• We’ll examine how Vistra’s long-term nuclear supply agreement and capacity expansion shifts the company’s investment narrative toward stable, sustainable growth.

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Vistra Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Vistra shareholder, you need to believe the company can capture long-term, steady earnings growth by securing multidecade power supply contracts and expanding capacity in line with rising demand, even while managing significant debt and exposure to commodity price volatility. The latest US$1.25 billion secured notes offering and 20-year nuclear supply contract provide visible cash flow, but do not materially ease the company’s leverage risk if market or credit conditions worsen.

Most relevant to this theme is the recent 20-year, 1,200 MW nuclear power contract with an investment-grade client, which aligns directly with the driving catalyst of stable, recurring revenue. This key win reinforces confidence in Vistra’s ability to weather power market swings, but it does not eliminate project execution risks tied to planned gas and renewables expansion.

By contrast, investors should also be aware that elevated debt levels and refinancing needs could become more challenging if...

Read the full narrative on Vistra (it's free!)

Vistra's outlook projects $24.5 billion in revenue and $3.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 9.8% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.2 billion increase in earnings from the current $2.2 billion level.

Uncover how Vistra's forecasts yield a $223.92 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fifteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from US$142 to US$419.99 per share, underscoring a broad range of expectations and valuation methods. While many believe major contracts lock in stability and growth, financial risks related to Vistra’s leverage remain top of mind for those watching the company’s next moves.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Vistra - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Vistra Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Vistra research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Vistra research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vistra's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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