Full Truck Alliance (YMM) Stock Overview
Operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 3/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for YMM from our risk checks.
YMM Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 57 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$8.77 |
| 52 Week High | US$14.07 |
| 52 Week Low | US$7.46 |
| Beta | 0.24 |
| 1 Month Change | -4.78% |
| 3 Month Change | 4.90% |
| 1 Year Change | -31.11% |
| 3 Year Change | 31.68% |
| 5 Year Change | -40.30% |
| Change since IPO | -59.21% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 20
Full Truck Alliance: High-Quality Monetization At An Inflection Point, Reiterate Buy
Summary Full Truck Alliance delivered Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance well ahead of consensus, reinforcing its market leadership in China’s freight gig economy. Transaction services revenue surged 33% y/y, with commission penetration reaching 94.7%, driving operating leverage and robust free cash flow generation. FTA’s platform governance and monetization initiatives are producing higher fulfillment rates, improved trucker economics, and a sustainable business model. We reiterate a BUY rating on YMM with a $11–$13/share target, citing 30–50% upside, attractive 4.5% yield, and historical low valuation, while noting macro and regulatory risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 14
YMM: Reset Expectations And 30-Day Catalyst Watch Will Drive Bullish Repricing
Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised to $16.17 from $16.77, as analysts attribute the change to a lower assumed future P/E multiple, along with slightly stronger modeled revenue growth and profit margins following recent upgrades and new coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Full Truck Alliance shows a cluster of bullish opinions, with several banks raising ratings, setting new price targets, and highlighting potential upside after recent share price weakness and earnings forecast resets.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 20
Full Truck Alliance: High-Quality Monetization At An Inflection Point, Reiterate Buy
Summary Full Truck Alliance delivered Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance well ahead of consensus, reinforcing its market leadership in China’s freight gig economy. Transaction services revenue surged 33% y/y, with commission penetration reaching 94.7%, driving operating leverage and robust free cash flow generation. FTA’s platform governance and monetization initiatives are producing higher fulfillment rates, improved trucker economics, and a sustainable business model. We reiterate a BUY rating on YMM with a $11–$13/share target, citing 30–50% upside, attractive 4.5% yield, and historical low valuation, while noting macro and regulatory risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jul 14
YMM: Reset Expectations And 30-Day Catalyst Watch Will Drive Bullish Repricing
Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised to $16.17 from $16.77, as analysts attribute the change to a lower assumed future P/E multiple, along with slightly stronger modeled revenue growth and profit margins following recent upgrades and new coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Full Truck Alliance shows a cluster of bullish opinions, with several banks raising ratings, setting new price targets, and highlighting potential upside after recent share price weakness and earnings forecast resets.
Narrative Update • Jun 30
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Execution Against A Reset Expectations Bar
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance. The higher price target is informed by slightly stronger implied revenue growth, a small uptick in projected profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Jun 16
YMM: Future Returns Will Balance Buybacks Bullish Calls And Execution Risks
Analysts have reduced their average price target on Full Truck Alliance stock to about $8.24 per share from roughly $8.29. This revision reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E multiples, following a series of recent bullish initiations and upgrades by major firms.Narrative Update • Jun 02
YMM: Dividend And 30-Day Catalyst Watch Will Support Bullish Repricing
Analysts have modestly lifted the price target on Full Truck Alliance to about $16.77 per share, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, discount rate and future P/E. These changes align with a generally constructive tone in recent research, including new coverage, an upgrade and a short term catalyst watch, alongside one Hold downgrade.Narrative Update • May 06
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Mixed Margin Outlook And Governance Versus Regulatory Risks
Analysts have reduced their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $9.55 to $8.29, citing more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and valuation multiples. This is partly offset by higher projected profit margins and input from recent mixed Street views, including a new bullish initiation, an upgrade, a short term upside watch and a downgrade.Narrative Update • Apr 22
YMM: Near Term Catalyst Watch And Dividend Initiation Will Support Rerating
Analysts have nudged their price target for Full Truck Alliance higher to $16.49 from $16.13, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, a revised profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple, despite a slight adjustment to the discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Full Truck Alliance has been mixed, but several bullish analysts are highlighting potential upside in the near term, especially around catalysts they see playing out over the next month.
Narrative Update • Apr 07
YMM: Governance And Dividend Progress Will Support Returns Through 2026
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Full Truck Alliance to $8 to $9, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth and margin expectations, and recent research highlighting ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds, along with mixed views on the company’s new initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Full Truck Alliance reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on potential long term benefits from new initiatives and others emphasizing execution risks and ongoing headwinds.Narrative Update • Mar 24
YMM: Governance And Dividend Initiatives Will Support Returns Into 2026
Narrative Update on Full Truck Alliance The updated analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been reduced from $14.52 to $12.40 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, softer revenue growth assumptions, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that they believe limit near term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has shifted more cautious on Full Truck Alliance, with multiple downgrades and trimmed price targets reflecting concerns about execution risk and limited visibility on new growth drivers.Narrative Update • Mar 09
YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Governance Efforts Versus Regulatory Headwinds
Analysts have reduced their price targets on Full Truck Alliance, including a cut from $11 to $8, citing a weaker risk and reward trade off, limited near term catalysts, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that are weighing on the company's core operations. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan cut its rating on Full Truck Alliance to Underweight from Neutral and reduced its price target to $8 from $11, reflecting a more cautious stance on the stock.Narrative Update • Feb 23
YMM: Governance And International Expansion Efforts Will Support Future Rerating
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance to $8 from $11, citing a weaker risk or reward profile as ongoing regulatory and macro pressures, softer margin assumptions, and limited visibility on new growth initiatives weigh on the outlook. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan's downgrade of Full Truck Alliance to Underweight with a US$8 price target, down from US$11, underlines how regulatory and macro pressures are weighing on sentiment.Narrative Update • Feb 09
YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Order Quality And Regulatory Headwinds
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance from about US$11.06 to roughly US$9.55 per share, reflecting lower expected profit margins and P/E, alongside ongoing concerns around regulation, macro headwinds and slower order growth, even as revenue growth assumptions are adjusted higher. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a more cautious tone on Full Truck Alliance, with several firms trimming price targets and reassessing the balance of risks around execution, growth and regulation.Narrative Update • Jan 25
YMM: Order Quality Cleanup And Governance Efforts Will Support Future Margin Expansion
Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Full Truck Alliance to about US$17.91 from roughly US$18.23 as they factor in lower forecast revenue growth, a reduced assumed future P/E multiple, and mixed views on order momentum and regulatory headwinds, despite stronger modeled profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Full Truck Alliance presents a split picture, with JPMorgan turning more cautious while other firms still see room for execution on growth plans and margin potential.Narrative Update • Jan 11
YMM: Order Quality Improvements Will Drive Future Margin Expansion Potential
Analysts have inched their price targets on Full Truck Alliance lower, broadly trimming expectations to a US$12 to US$14 range as they weigh Q3 results that were roughly in line with forecasts against signs of slowing order growth and near term revenue deceleration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on near term growth, but many bullish analysts are still highlighting areas where they see execution holding up and the long term story intact.Analysis Article • Jan 03
Full Truck Alliance (NYSE:YMM) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Narrative Update • Dec 26
YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Order Quality And Earnings Durability
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance slightly, with the updated fair value estimate edging down to $11.06 from $11.08. This reflects expectations for slower near term revenue growth, partly offset by improving profit margins and a lower assumed future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Dec 12
YMM: Long Term Margin Expansion Will Drive Earnings Power Ahead
The analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been trimmed modestly to approximately $18 from about $19.75 as analysts factor in decelerating near term revenue growth and higher discount rates, which are partly offset by improving long term profit margin expectations and a lower future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge a near term moderation in order growth but continue to highlight Full Truck Alliance's solid execution against expectations, particularly around revenue delivery and platform quality improvements.Narrative Update • Nov 28
YMM: Forward Revenue Guidance Will Support Robust Returns Into 2026
Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised downward, dropping from approximately $15.29 to $14.52 per share. Analysts cite recent quarterly results and cautious forward guidance for order volume and transaction revenue growth as reasons for this adjustment.Narrative Update • Nov 14
YMM: Future Net Profit Margins Will Sustain Strong Shareholder Returns
Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Full Truck Alliance, raising it marginally to $15.29 per share. They cited minor improvements in the company’s discount rate estimates as the reason for this adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 31
YMM: Future AI Matching And Logistics Trends Will Drive Strong Upside
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance at $15.29 per share, citing minimal changes in key assumptions that support their outlook. What's in the News Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.Narrative Update • Oct 16
China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $15.52 to $15.29 per share. They cite tempered growth and margin expectations but maintain optimism due to recent undervaluation concerns and anticipation of strong quarterly results.Analysis Article • Sep 18
Investors Appear Satisfied With Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s (NYSE:YMM) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ( NYSE:YMM ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...Narrative Update • Sep 11
China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value
The consensus analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been modestly raised to $15.52, reflecting improved sentiment driven by attractive valuation post-selloff, easing regulatory concerns, and expectations for strong Q2 results. Analyst Commentary Valuation has become more attractive after the recent selloff.Seeking Alpha • Mar 08
Full Truck Alliance: Maintain 'Buy' After Strong Q4 Results
Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q4 2024 results showed strong growth, with net revenues up 32% and non-GAAP net income up 43.5% year-over-year. The stock surged 13% post-earnings, validating my thesis of rapid growth driven by increasing order volume and monetization rate. Despite the rally, YMM remains undervalued; I maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of $17.5-18, implying a 32% upside. Key risks include potential reductions in VAT subsidies and scrutiny over high-interest rates in YMM's value-added services. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 22
Full Truck Alliance: Too Cheap For The Growth.
Summary Full Truck Alliance (YMM) is China's largest digital freight platform, offering freight matching and value-added services, with a dominant market share and significant growth potential. YMM's revenue and order volume are increasing, driven by rising online penetration rates and higher monetization rates, with a projected revenue growth of over 20% in 2025 and 2026. Despite regulatory and competitive risks, YMM's current valuation is low, trading at 16 times 2025 earnings, with a target price of $16.5-$17 per share. Initiating a "buy" rating for YMM due to its strong market position, growth drivers, and potential for a 50% upside from the current stock price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Nov 20
Transformative Digital Revolution Elevates Logistics Industry Efficiency And Growth
Strategic initiatives in user acquisition and branding among SMEs are rapidly expanding the shipper user base and future revenue potential.Seeking Alpha • Aug 23
Full Truck Alliance: Positive On Strong Q2 Growth And Favorable Volume Guidance
Summary Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s revenue and net income attributable to shareholders rose significantly by +34% YoY and +33% YoY, respectively in Q2 2024. The company sees its order volume increasing by +20% or more for the full year, which will be on par with its actual Q2 2024 order volume expansion of +22%. Full Truck Alliance's solid second quarter results and positive full-year prospects support a higher valuation multiple and a Buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 24
Full Truck Alliance: Turning Positive On Results Beat And Attractive Shareholder Yield (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q1 2024 financial results were better than expected, with its top line and bottom line expanding by +33% and +50%, respectively on YoY terms. YMM's potential shareholder yield could be as high as 4.5% as per my estimates. I revise my rating for the stock from a Hold to a Buy, following an evaluation of the company's financial performance and shareholder capital return. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 11
Full Truck Alliance: Spotlight On Higher Costs
Summary Full Truck Alliance's actual Q4 2023 operating profit missed the market's expectations due to a significant increase in sales and marketing expenses. Moving forward, Full Truck Alliance sees its top line expanding by +25% YoY in Q1 2024, but it also anticipates making meaningful investments in sales and marketing this year. I maintain my Hold rating for YMM, after assessing its revenue growth and operating profitability outlook. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| YMM | US Transportation | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -0.5% | 2.0% | -1.5% |
| 1Y | -31.1% | 12.8% | 17.8% |
Return vs Industry: YMM underperformed the US Transportation industry which returned 12.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: YMM underperformed the US Market which returned 17.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| YMM volatility | |
|---|---|
| YMM Average Weekly Movement | 5.4% |
| Transportation Industry Average Movement | 6.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: YMM has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: YMM's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 8,251 | Peter Zhang | www.fulltruckalliance.com |
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, intelligent driving related services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services.
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Fundamentals Summary
| YMM fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$9.10b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$627.15m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.90b |
14.5x
P/E Ratio4.8x
P/S RatioIs YMM overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| YMM income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | CN¥12.78b |
| Cost of Revenue | CN¥1.63b |
| Gross Profit | CN¥11.15b |
| Other Expenses | CN¥6.94b |
| Earnings | CN¥4.22b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 4.06 |
| Gross Margin | 87.26% |
| Net Profit Margin | 32.99% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did YMM perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
3.8%
Current Dividend Yield45%
Payout RatioDoes YMM pay a reliable dividends?
See YMM dividend history and benchmarks| Full Truck Alliance dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Oct 14 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Oct 28 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 52 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 66 days |
Does YMM pay a reliable dividends?
See YMM dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/08/23 04:31 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/08/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Cherry Leung | Bernstein |
| Fan Tso | BofA Global Research |