Full Truck Alliance - Stock price, News & Analysis

YMM fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	6/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

YMM Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 48.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 120.34% per year

Revenue grew by 74.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Full Truck Alliance
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$9.02
52 Week High	US$22.80
52 Week Low	US$7.16
Beta	0
1 Month Change	8.67%
3 Month Change	-46.50%
1 Year Change	n/a
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-58.05%

Recent News & Updates

Dec 20

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s (NYSE:YMM) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 79% Above Its Share Price

Does the December share price for Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ( NYSE:YMM ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we...

Oct 20

Full Truck Alliance Moves Back Into Fast Lane With Strong Government Support

Full Truck Alliance’s shares surged after separate media reports showed strong government backing by both Beijing and its home province. Company’s two key apps have reappeared in China app stores after being removed this summer pending a data security review. The company’s stock has always looked quite high when compared with more traditional logistics peers.

Aug 05

Investors Take Comfort In Full Truck Alliance's Business Update

Shares of trucking logistics specialist are up more than 40% over last week after it said its order volume grew 88% in the second quarter. Full Truck Alliance’s stock is down by a third since its June IPO as it faces a cybersecurity review that has yet come to reach conclusion. The company’s shares have rallied over the last week after it revealed its order volume and gross transaction value rose 88% and 58%, respectively, in the second quarter.

Shareholder Returns

	YMM	US Transportation	US Market
7D	1.8%	-4.8%	-6.1%
1Y	n/a	6.5%	4.2%

Return vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine how YMM performed against the US Transportation industry.

Return vs Market: Insufficient data to determine how YMM performed against the US Market.

Price Volatility

Is YMM's price volatile compared to industry and market?
YMM volatility
YMM Average Weekly Movement	12.5%
Transportation Industry Average Movement	6.9%
Market Average Movement	6.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.4%

Stable Share Price: YMM is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.

Volatility Over Time: YMM's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2011	4,059	Peter Zhang	https://www.fulltruckalliance.com

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People’s Republic of China. It offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services. The company also provides guarantees, and technology development and other services.

Full Truck Alliance Fundamentals Summary

How do Full Truck Alliance's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
YMM fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥62.09b
Earnings (TTM)	-CN¥5.75b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥4.08b

15.2x

P/S Ratio

-10.8x

P/E Ratio

Is YMM overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
YMM income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥4.08b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥3.26b
Gross Profit	CN¥820.87m
Expenses	CN¥6.57b
Earnings	-CN¥5.75b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-5.29
Gross Margin	20.13%
Net Profit Margin	-140.94%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did YMM perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Full Truck Alliance undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

48.9%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: YMM ($9.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($17.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YMM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: YMM is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Transportation industry average.

PE vs Market: YMM is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate YMM's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: YMM is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.9x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (2.1x).

Future Growth

How is Full Truck Alliance forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

120.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: YMM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: YMM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: YMM's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: YMM's revenue (62% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (9.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: YMM's revenue (62% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: YMM's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (56.8%).

Past Performance

How has Full Truck Alliance performed over the past 5 years?

-360.9%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: YMM is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: YMM is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if YMM's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare YMM's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: YMM is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (82.5%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: YMM has a negative Return on Equity (-15.76%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Full Truck Alliance's financial position?

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: YMM's short term assets (CN¥29.7B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥2.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: YMM's short term assets (CN¥29.7B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥117.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: YMM is debt free.

Reducing Debt: YMM had no debt 5 years ago.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if YMM has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if YMM has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

Dividend

What is Full Truck Alliance current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate YMM's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate YMM's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if YMM's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if YMM's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of YMM's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Transportation industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Peter Zhang (42 yo)

3.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Hui Zhang, also known as Peter, serves as Founder at Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Mr. Zhang also serves as Chairman of Board of Directors at Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. since November 2020, Chief Exec...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: YMM's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: YMM's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: YMM only recently listed within the past 12 months.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/01/23 23:29
End of Day Share Price	2022/01/21 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31