Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

NYSE:YMM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.2b

Full Truck Alliance Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Full Truck Alliance is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.7% and 7.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 17.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.3% in 3 years.

Key information

15.7%

Earnings growth rate

17.34%

EPS growth rate

Transportation earnings growth14.1%
Revenue growth rate7.2%
Future return on equity13.25%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated22 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 06

YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Mixed Margin Outlook And Governance Versus Regulatory Risks

Analysts have reduced their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $9.55 to $8.29, citing more cautious assumptions on revenue growth and valuation multiples. This is partly offset by higher projected profit margins and input from recent mixed Street views, including a new bullish initiation, an upgrade, a short term upside watch and a downgrade.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 24

Full Truck Alliance: Short-Term Headwinds Do Not Invalidate Longer-Term Growth Prospects

Summary Full Truck Alliance has seen its market cap go down after the October high, which coincided with a slowdown in growth. The slowdown is due to headwinds that are likely to be temporary, which suggests growth could accelerate again. An argument can be made that lower valuations are an opportunity, assuming the slowdown in growth is not permanent. YMM can overcome the recent slowdown in growth, which is why I am bullish on YMM with a buy rating at the current reduced valuations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 22

YMM: Near Term Catalyst Watch And Dividend Initiation Will Support Rerating

Analysts have nudged their price target for Full Truck Alliance higher to $16.49 from $16.13, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, a revised profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple, despite a slight adjustment to the discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Full Truck Alliance has been mixed, but several bullish analysts are highlighting potential upside in the near term, especially around catalysts they see playing out over the next month.
Narrative Update • Apr 07

YMM: Governance And Dividend Progress Will Support Returns Through 2026

Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Full Truck Alliance to $8 to $9, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth and margin expectations, and recent research highlighting ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds, along with mixed views on the company’s new initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Full Truck Alliance reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on potential long term benefits from new initiatives and others emphasizing execution risks and ongoing headwinds.
Narrative Update • Mar 24

YMM: Governance And Dividend Initiatives Will Support Returns Into 2026

Narrative Update on Full Truck Alliance The updated analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been reduced from $14.52 to $12.40 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, softer revenue growth assumptions, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that they believe limit near term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has shifted more cautious on Full Truck Alliance, with multiple downgrades and trimmed price targets reflecting concerns about execution risk and limited visibility on new growth drivers.
Narrative Update • Mar 09

YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Governance Efforts Versus Regulatory Headwinds

Analysts have reduced their price targets on Full Truck Alliance, including a cut from $11 to $8, citing a weaker risk and reward trade off, limited near term catalysts, and ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds that are weighing on the company's core operations. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan cut its rating on Full Truck Alliance to Underweight from Neutral and reduced its price target to $8 from $11, reflecting a more cautious stance on the stock.
Narrative Update • Feb 23

YMM: Governance And International Expansion Efforts Will Support Future Rerating

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance to $8 from $11, citing a weaker risk or reward profile as ongoing regulatory and macro pressures, softer margin assumptions, and limited visibility on new growth initiatives weigh on the outlook. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan's downgrade of Full Truck Alliance to Underweight with a US$8 price target, down from US$11, underlines how regulatory and macro pressures are weighing on sentiment.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

YMM: Future Returns Will Hinge On Order Quality And Regulatory Headwinds

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance from about US$11.06 to roughly US$9.55 per share, reflecting lower expected profit margins and P/E, alongside ongoing concerns around regulation, macro headwinds and slower order growth, even as revenue growth assumptions are adjusted higher. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights a more cautious tone on Full Truck Alliance, with several firms trimming price targets and reassessing the balance of risks around execution, growth and regulation.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

YMM: Order Quality Cleanup And Governance Efforts Will Support Future Margin Expansion

Analysts have trimmed their blended price target for Full Truck Alliance to about US$17.91 from roughly US$18.23 as they factor in lower forecast revenue growth, a reduced assumed future P/E multiple, and mixed views on order momentum and regulatory headwinds, despite stronger modeled profit margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Full Truck Alliance presents a split picture, with JPMorgan turning more cautious while other firms still see room for execution on growth plans and margin potential.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

YMM: Order Quality Improvements Will Drive Future Margin Expansion Potential

Analysts have inched their price targets on Full Truck Alliance lower, broadly trimming expectations to a US$12 to US$14 range as they weigh Q3 results that were roughly in line with forecasts against signs of slowing order growth and near term revenue deceleration. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious stance on near term growth, but many bullish analysts are still highlighting areas where they see execution holding up and the long term story intact.
Analysis Article • Jan 03

Full Truck Alliance (NYSE:YMM) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Narrative Update • Dec 26

YMM: Future Returns Will Depend On Order Quality And Earnings Durability

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Full Truck Alliance slightly, with the updated fair value estimate edging down to $11.06 from $11.08. This reflects expectations for slower near term revenue growth, partly offset by improving profit margins and a lower assumed future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Dec 12

YMM: Long Term Margin Expansion Will Drive Earnings Power Ahead

The analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been trimmed modestly to approximately $18 from about $19.75 as analysts factor in decelerating near term revenue growth and higher discount rates, which are partly offset by improving long term profit margin expectations and a lower future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge a near term moderation in order growth but continue to highlight Full Truck Alliance's solid execution against expectations, particularly around revenue delivery and platform quality improvements.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

YMM: Forward Revenue Guidance Will Support Robust Returns Into 2026

Full Truck Alliance's analyst price target has been revised downward, dropping from approximately $15.29 to $14.52 per share. Analysts cite recent quarterly results and cautious forward guidance for order volume and transaction revenue growth as reasons for this adjustment.
Narrative Update • Nov 14

YMM: Future Net Profit Margins Will Sustain Strong Shareholder Returns

Analysts have slightly adjusted their price target for Full Truck Alliance, raising it marginally to $15.29 per share. They cited minor improvements in the company’s discount rate estimates as the reason for this adjustment.
Narrative Update • Oct 31

YMM: Future AI Matching And Logistics Trends Will Drive Strong Upside

Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Full Truck Alliance at $15.29 per share, citing minimal changes in key assumptions that support their outlook. What's in the News Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
Narrative Update • Oct 16

China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Full Truck Alliance from $15.52 to $15.29 per share. They cite tempered growth and margin expectations but maintain optimism due to recent undervaluation concerns and anticipation of strong quarterly results.
Analysis Article • Sep 18

Investors Appear Satisfied With Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s (NYSE:YMM) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ( NYSE:YMM ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...
Narrative Update • Sep 11

China Online Logistics And AI Matching Will Unlock Future Value

The consensus analyst price target for Full Truck Alliance has been modestly raised to $15.52, reflecting improved sentiment driven by attractive valuation post-selloff, easing regulatory concerns, and expectations for strong Q2 results. Analyst Commentary Valuation has become more attractive after the recent selloff.
Analysis Article • Jul 24

Earnings Tell The Story For Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:YMM)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.1x Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ( NYSE:YMM ) may be sending bearish...
Analysis Article • Jun 20

Here's Why We Think Full Truck Alliance (NYSE:YMM) Is Well Worth Watching

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 08

Full Truck Alliance: Maintain 'Buy' After Strong Q4 Results

Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q4 2024 results showed strong growth, with net revenues up 32% and non-GAAP net income up 43.5% year-over-year. The stock surged 13% post-earnings, validating my thesis of rapid growth driven by increasing order volume and monetization rate. Despite the rally, YMM remains undervalued; I maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of $17.5-18, implying a 32% upside. Key risks include potential reductions in VAT subsidies and scrutiny over high-interest rates in YMM's value-added services. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 22

Full Truck Alliance: Too Cheap For The Growth.

Summary Full Truck Alliance (YMM) is China's largest digital freight platform, offering freight matching and value-added services, with a dominant market share and significant growth potential. YMM's revenue and order volume are increasing, driven by rising online penetration rates and higher monetization rates, with a projected revenue growth of over 20% in 2025 and 2026. Despite regulatory and competitive risks, YMM's current valuation is low, trading at 16 times 2025 earnings, with a target price of $16.5-$17 per share. Initiating a "buy" rating for YMM due to its strong market position, growth drivers, and potential for a 50% upside from the current stock price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Nov 20

Transformative Digital Revolution Elevates Logistics Industry Efficiency And Growth

Strategic initiatives in user acquisition and branding among SMEs are rapidly expanding the shipper user base and future revenue potential.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

Full Truck Alliance: Positive On Strong Q2 Growth And Favorable Volume Guidance

Summary Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s revenue and net income attributable to shareholders rose significantly by +34% YoY and +33% YoY, respectively in Q2 2024. The company sees its order volume increasing by +20% or more for the full year, which will be on par with its actual Q2 2024 order volume expansion of +22%. Full Truck Alliance's solid second quarter results and positive full-year prospects support a higher valuation multiple and a Buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 24

Full Truck Alliance: Turning Positive On Results Beat And Attractive Shareholder Yield (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Full Truck Alliance's Q1 2024 financial results were better than expected, with its top line and bottom line expanding by +33% and +50%, respectively on YoY terms. YMM's potential shareholder yield could be as high as 4.5% as per my estimates. I revise my rating for the stock from a Hold to a Buy, following an evaluation of the company's financial performance and shareholder capital return. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 11

Full Truck Alliance: Spotlight On Higher Costs

Summary Full Truck Alliance's actual Q4 2023 operating profit missed the market's expectations due to a significant increase in sales and marketing expenses. Moving forward, Full Truck Alliance sees its top line expanding by +25% YoY in Q1 2024, but it also anticipates making meaningful investments in sales and marketing this year. I maintain my Hold rating for YMM, after assessing its revenue growth and operating profitability outlook. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 08

Full Truck Alliance Performs Well As Chinese Road Freight Market Improves

Summary Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. provides a road freight logistics platform in China. China is seeing a rebound in road freight volume growth. Full Truck Alliance is performing well and the stock appears to be undervalued. My outlook on Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. stock is a Buy at around $6.90 per share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 06

Full Truck Alliance: Undervalued Gem With Solid Financials

Summary YMM posted impressive Q2 FY23 results with strong revenue and net income growth. The company's financials show a rise in revenues from freight brokerage and value-added services, with minimal increase in operating expenses. YMM's balance sheet is strong, with increased cash and minimal debt, making it an undervalued buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:YMM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202815,2726,6196,5256,21510
12/31/202713,1485,6955,5316,14414
12/31/202611,6384,4689,6895,4538
3/31/202612,6384,1305,6985,863N/A
12/31/202512,4904,4084,4974,627N/A
9/30/202512,4723,979N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202512,1454,179N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202511,6703,757N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202411,2393,0702,8952,970N/A
9/30/202410,4723,095N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20249,7052,603N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20249,0032,385N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20238,4362,2132,1692,270N/A
9/30/20237,9511,823N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20237,4951,602N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20237,1031,008N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20226,734407-101-16N/A
9/30/20226,241-1,108N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20225,674-1,680N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20225,122-3,898N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20214,657-4,173-255-211N/A
9/30/20214,078-5,747N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20213,571-5,903N/AN/AN/A
3/31/20212,950-3,878N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20202,581-3,591522575N/A
9/30/20202,340-1,247671679N/A
12/31/20192,473-1,542N/A-924N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: YMM's forecast earnings growth (15.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: YMM's earnings (15.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: YMM's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: YMM's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: YMM's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: YMM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/22 13:37
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/22 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is covered by 20 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Cherry LeungBernstein
Fan TsoBofA Global Research