Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

NYSE:YMM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.4b

Full Truck Alliance Valuation

Is YMM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YMM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YMM ($10.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YMM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YMM?

Key metric: As YMM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YMM. This is calculated by dividing YMM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YMM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.9x
EarningsCN¥3.10b
Market CapCN¥83.25b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YMM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YMM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.5x
SAIA Saia
35x14.0%US$13.5b
UHAL U-Haul Holding
27.5xn/aUS$12.4b
R Ryder System
13.8x12.7%US$6.6b
XPO XPO
45.8x18.4%US$17.2b
YMM Full Truck Alliance
26.9x27.0%US$11.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YMM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (30.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YMM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
YMM 26.9xIndustry Avg. 27.4xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YMM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (27.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YMM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YMM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.9x
Fair PE Ratio21.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YMM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YMM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$10.92
US$12.49
+14.4%
19.1%US$15.87US$6.99n/a12
Dec ’25US$10.01
US$12.26
+22.5%
18.5%US$15.90US$7.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$8.94
US$11.63
+30.0%
19.2%US$15.74US$7.12n/a12
Oct ’25US$9.30
US$11.64
+25.1%
19.2%US$15.76US$7.13n/a12
Sep ’25US$7.25
US$11.49
+58.5%
19.2%US$15.53US$7.02n/a12
Aug ’25US$7.24
US$11.75
+62.2%
15.3%US$15.23US$8.98n/a12
Jul ’25US$7.85
US$11.75
+49.7%
15.3%US$15.25US$8.99n/a12
Jun ’25US$8.84
US$11.77
+33.1%
15.3%US$15.27US$9.00n/a12
May ’25US$8.52
US$10.13
+18.8%
22.9%US$15.67US$5.95n/a11
Apr ’25US$7.49
US$10.14
+35.4%
22.9%US$15.70US$5.97n/a11
Mar ’25US$6.66
US$10.71
+60.8%
16.2%US$15.26US$7.97n/a11
Feb ’25US$6.44
US$10.79
+67.6%
16.2%US$15.38US$8.03n/a11
Jan ’25US$7.01
US$10.83
+54.5%
16.2%US$15.39US$8.04n/a11
Dec ’24US$7.38
US$10.84
+46.9%
16.9%US$15.08US$8.04US$10.019
Nov ’24US$6.52
US$10.75
+64.8%
17.1%US$14.96US$7.96US$8.949
Oct ’24US$7.04
US$10.75
+52.7%
17.1%US$14.96US$7.96US$9.309
Sep ’24US$7.18
US$11.13
+55.0%
18.5%US$15.01US$7.99US$7.2510
Aug ’24US$7.20
US$10.93
+51.9%
17.8%US$14.85US$7.85US$7.2410
Jul ’24US$6.22
US$11.09
+78.3%
17.5%US$14.78US$7.81US$7.859
Jun ’24US$6.23
US$11.09
+78.0%
17.9%US$15.08US$7.97US$8.849
May ’24US$6.50
US$11.85
+82.3%
15.7%US$15.11US$8.11US$8.528
Apr ’24US$7.61
US$11.85
+55.7%
15.7%US$15.11US$8.11US$7.498
Mar ’24US$7.75
US$12.13
+56.5%
21.8%US$18.16US$8.00US$6.668
Feb ’24US$8.10
US$12.82
+58.3%
17.6%US$18.15US$11.16US$6.447
Jan ’24US$8.00
US$12.49
+56.1%
17.2%US$17.63US$11.00US$7.017
Dec ’23US$8.50
US$12.27
+44.4%
22.0%US$18.74US$10.40US$7.387

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 23:21
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Jiulu LiChina International Capital Corporation Limited
Xin YangChina International Capital Corporation Limited