Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of KNX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

KNX ($56.06) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($65.64)

KNX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

KNX Stock Overview

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides truckload transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Rewards

Trading at 14.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 16.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.3% per year for the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Competitors

Avis Budget Group

NasdaqGS:CAR

US$8.7b

AMERCO

NasdaqGS:UHAL

US$11.4b

Saia

NasdaqGS:SAIA

US$6.2b

XPO Logistics

NYSE:XPO

US$6.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$56.06
52 Week High	US$62.29
52 Week Low	US$42.50
Beta	1.24
1 Month Change	10.88%
3 Month Change	21.08%
1 Year Change	14.95%
3 Year Change	64.74%
5 Year Change	52.54%
Change since IPO	2,848.61%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 16

Should You Investigate Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) At US$56.44?

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. ( NYSE:KNX ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share...

Jul 22

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:KNX) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...

Shareholder Returns

	KNX	US Transportation	US Market
7D	-0.1%	-1.5%	1.4%
1Y	14.9%	-12.5%	-8.4%

Return vs Industry: KNX exceeded the US Transportation industry which returned -13.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KNX exceeded the US Market which returned -9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is KNX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
KNX volatility
KNX Average Weekly Movement	4.1%
Transportation Industry Average Movement	7.5%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: KNX is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: KNX's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1989	27,650	Dave Jackson	https://knight-swift.com

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides truckload transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates through four segments: Trucking, Logistics, Less-than-truckload (LTL), and Intermodal. Its trucking services include irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, dry van, drayage, and cross-border transportation of various products, goods, and materials.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
KNX fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$9.01b
Earnings (TTM)	US$888.62m
Revenue (TTM)	US$7.25b

10.1x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is KNX overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
KNX income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$7.25b
Cost of Revenue	US$4.84b
Gross Profit	US$2.41b
Other Expenses	US$1.52b
Earnings	US$888.62m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.53
Gross Margin	33.19%
Net Profit Margin	12.26%
Debt/Equity Ratio	24.4%

How did KNX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.9%

Current Dividend Yield

8%

Payout Ratio

Does KNX pay a reliable dividends?

See KNX dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy KNX by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Sep 01 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 26 2022
Days until Ex dividend	12 days
Days until Dividend pay date	37 days

Does KNX pay a reliable dividends?

See KNX dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is KNX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KNX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for KNX. This is calculated by dividing KNX's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is KNX's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$9.01b

KNX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.2x
PEG Ratio	-3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KNX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

KNX PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for KNX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.1x
CAR Avis Budget Group	3.7x	-50.0%	US$8.7b
UHAL AMERCO	10.2x	n/a	US$11.4b
SAIA Saia	18x	4.3%	US$6.2b
XPO XPO Logistics	8.7x	-16.7%	US$6.7b
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings	10.1x	-3.3%	US$9.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KNX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KNX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KNX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (10.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KNX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KNX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.1x
Fair PE Ratio	11.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KNX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KNX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KNX ($56.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KNX is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-3.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.3% per year).

Earnings vs Market: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KNX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: KNX's revenue (0.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KNX's revenue (0.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KNX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

16.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KNX has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: KNX's current net profit margins (12.3%) are higher than last year (10.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KNX's earnings have grown by 16.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KNX's earnings growth over the past year (62.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (16.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: KNX earnings growth over the past year (62.5%) underperformed the Transportation industry 62.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: KNX's Return on Equity (13.4%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: KNX's short term assets ($1.5B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: KNX's short term assets ($1.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($3.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: KNX's net debt to equity ratio (21.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: KNX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 1.2% to 24.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: KNX's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (89.6%).

Interest Coverage: KNX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (38.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.86%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: KNX's dividend (0.86%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.48%).

High Dividend: KNX's dividend (0.86%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.99%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: KNX's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: KNX's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (8.2%), KNX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (8.9%), KNX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Dave Jackson (46 yo)

11.5yrs

Tenure

US$6,281,272

Compensation

Mr. David A. Jackson, also known as Dave, serves as Member of Advisory Board at Embark Technology, Inc. (formerly known as Embark Trucks, Inc.) since September 2021. He was President and Chief Executive Of...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dave's total compensation ($USD6.28M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.19M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dave's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: KNX's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: KNX's board of directors are considered experienced (7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: KNX insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31