Does The Market Have A Low Tolerance For Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE:LUV) Mixed Fundamentals?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Southwest Airlines' (NYSE:LUV) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.6% over the past three months. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. Specifically, we decided to study Southwest Airlines' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Southwest Airlines is:

5.8% = US$547m ÷ US$9.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.06 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Southwest Airlines

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Southwest Airlines' Earnings Growth And 5.8% ROE

At first glance, Southwest Airlines' ROE doesn't look very promising. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 12% either. Despite this, surprisingly, Southwest Airlines saw an exceptional 32% net income growth over the past five years. So, there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Southwest Airlines' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 44% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Southwest Airlines fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Southwest Airlines Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 82% (implying that it keeps only 18% of profits) for Southwest Airlines suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of the earnings to its shareholders.

Additionally, Southwest Airlines has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 25% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 18%, over the same period.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Southwest Airlines' performance. Although the company has shown a fair bit of growth in earnings, the reinvestment rate is low. Meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits and reinvesting that at a higher rate of return. We also studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that the company's earnings growth is expected be similar to its current growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.