Southwest Airlines Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Southwest Airlines is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22.6% and 4.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 23% in 3 years.
Key information
22.6%
Earnings growth rate
26.14%
EPS growth rate
| Airlines earnings growth | 14.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.9% |
| Future return on equity | 22.99% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 19 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 03
LUV: 2026 Cabin Changes And Fuel Recovery Potential Will Support Earnings
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Southwest Airlines slightly higher to about $45.25 from $44.82 as they balance fuel cost pressures, softer revenue growth and margin expectations, and a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple of around 10x. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Southwest Airlines reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with multiple firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they reassess fuel assumptions, demand trends, and the earnings impact of new initiatives.Seeking Alpha • Apr 24
Southwest Airlines: Braced For Fuel Shocks, Not Priced For Them
Summary Southwest Airlines Co. faces headwinds from sustained high oil prices driven by geopolitical conflict, pressuring margins and necessitating fare hikes. LUV’s balance sheet remains robust, with over $3B in cash and manageable debt, offering resilience compared to weaker peers. Management aims to offset fuel costs with ticket price increases, but has not updated guidance, reflecting uncertainty about demand elasticity and war duration. I view LUV as fairly valued near $38 and would only consider buying below $29.09 per share, given cyclical risks and limited near-term upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 19
LUV: Rising Fuel Costs Will Likely Constrain Future Margin Recovery
Southwest Airlines' analyst price target is revised slightly lower to $24.00 as analysts factor in higher discount rates, more conservative revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple following a series of recent target cuts that largely cite rising fuel costs and more cautious earnings estimates. Analyst Commentary Street research around Southwest has turned more cautious as analysts revisit their assumptions on fuel, revenue, and margins.Narrative Update • Apr 04
LUV: 2026 Cabin Upgrades And Seating Changes Will Support Earnings Power
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Southwest Airlines down from about $47.47 to $44.82. This reflects a blend of higher assumed fuel costs, slightly stronger revenue and margin expectations, a higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple in response to a recent wave of reduced price targets across the Street.
Narrative Update • Mar 21
LUV: New Seating And Fees Will Support Future Margin Recovery
Southwest Airlines' analyst price targets have generally shifted lower by about $10 in recent revisions, as analysts factor in higher assumed fuel costs, even while acknowledging resilient demand and incremental revenue initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but constructive picture for Southwest, with many firms recalibrating price targets around higher fuel assumptions while still pointing to healthy demand and revenue initiatives.Narrative Update • Mar 07
LUV: Fuel Cost And Capacity Pressures Will Likely Undermine Fee Initiatives
The updated analyst price target for Southwest Airlines implies a slightly lower fair value of about $24.03, as analysts weigh stronger long term earnings initiatives and demand expectations against higher fuel cost risks and a modestly higher discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Southwest Airlines reflects a mix of optimism around long term earnings initiatives and growing caution around fuel costs, capacity trends, and execution on planned product changes.Narrative Update • Feb 20
LUV: Future Fee Initiatives Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Southwest has moved higher to reflect a fair value estimate of $24.38, supported by updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rate as analysts highlight potential earnings contributions from extra legroom, assigned seating, and checked bag initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Southwest has centered on how new revenue initiatives like extra legroom, assigned seating, and checked bag fees could affect earnings power and, in turn, perceived fair value for the stock.Analysis Article • Feb 08
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.18
The board of Southwest Airlines Co. ( NYSE:LUV ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the...Narrative Update • Feb 05
LUV: 2026 Capacity Expansion And Partnerships Will Test Rich Share Pricing
Analysts have raised their implied fair value estimate for Southwest Airlines from about $39.63 to $47.47. This change reflects a series of higher price targets across the Street as they factor in updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Jan 22
LUV: Easing Fuel Costs And Resilient Demand Will Support Margin Recovery
The analyst price target for Southwest Airlines has been raised from US$54.95 to US$60.00, as analysts point to a more supportive industry setup into 2026, including resilient demand signals, easing fuel headwinds, and a wide range of higher Street targets across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a cluster of higher price targets and a key upgrade that together frame a more constructive setup for Southwest Airlines into 2026.Narrative Update • Jan 08
LUV: Demand Recovery And 2026 Outlook Will Shape Fairly Valued Shares
Narrative Update: Southwest Airlines (LUV) Our analyst price target for Southwest Airlines has moved higher from US$35.00 to about US$40.00. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple in line with recent analyst price target increases across the sector and expectations for healthier demand and earnings outlooks into 2026.Narrative Update • Dec 24
LUV: Technology-Driven Merchandising Will Support Higher Margins And Reduced Risk Profile
Analysts have lifted their price target for Southwest Airlines to approximately $55 per share from about $46, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower perceived risk profile, in line with recent Street research that highlights the airline sector’s evolving merchandising and pricing power. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to Southwest’s improving fundamentals and revenue trajectory as justification for higher valuation expectations.Analysis Article • Dec 12
Revenues Not Telling The Story For Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) After Shares Rise 27%
The Southwest Airlines Co. ( NYSE:LUV ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain...Narrative Update • Dec 10
LUV: Industry Tailwinds And Partnerships Will Shape Future Earnings Profile
Southwest Airlines' analyst price target has ticked higher by about $1 to the mid $30s, as analysts cite a lower perceived risk profile, slightly refined long term growth and profitability assumptions, and supportive industry dynamics highlighted in recent airline sector previews. Analyst Commentary Analysts are broadly constructive on Southwest's risk reward profile, but remain divided on how quickly the carrier can translate industry tailwinds into outsized earnings growth relative to peers.Narrative Update • Nov 26
LUV: Revenue Momentum And Industry Shifts Will Influence Market Standing
Southwest Airlines’ analyst price target has increased from approximately $34.07 to $34.23. Analysts cite incremental improvements in revenue growth and profit margin expectations as key drivers behind this modest upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 08
LUV: Evolving Industry Dynamics Will Shape Margins And Global Partnership Outcomes
Southwest Airlines' analyst price target has been raised from $33.76 to $34.07 as analysts cite evolving industry dynamics and projected improvements in technology-driven merchandising platforms, which support a cautiously optimistic outlook for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary from analysts reflects both optimism and caution regarding Southwest Airlines' near-term prospects and long-term positioning in a changing U.S. airline landscape.Analysis Article • Oct 31
We Like The Quality Of Southwest Airlines' (NYSE:LUV) Earnings
The stock was sluggish on the back of Southwest Airlines Co.'s ( NYSE:LUV ) recent earnings report. We have done some...Narrative Update • Oct 25
Industry Shifts And Margin Recovery Will Support Performance Through 2026 And Beyond
Southwest Airlines’ analyst price target has been raised from approximately $33.06 to $33.76. Analysts cite improved profit margin expectations and accelerating industry revenue growth as driving factors behind the update.Narrative Update • Oct 11
Expedia Channel And Premium Seating Will Boost Operational Efficiency
Southwest Airlines' analyst consensus price target has been revised upward by $0.55. Analysts highlight improvements in expected revenue growth and profit margins, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 27
Expedia Channel And Premium Seating Will Boost Operational Efficiency
The consensus analyst price target for Southwest Airlines saw a slight upward revision to $32.51 as bullish analysts highlight stronger long-term profit expectations and industry consolidation benefits, while persistent near-term skepticism among others tempers enthusiasm. Analyst Commentary JPMorgan is bullish, citing above-consensus earnings estimates through 2026-2027 and expectations of outsized industry profit consolidation among stronger carriers like Southwest.Narrative Update • Sep 12
Expedia Channel And Premium Seating Will Boost Operational Efficiency
Both the consensus analyst price target and key financial metrics for Southwest Airlines have seen negligible changes, indicating continued stability in fundamentals, with the fair value price target edged slightly higher to $32.16. What's in the News Southwest is expanding routes aggressively for 2026, launching new destinations including Santa Rosa, CA; Knoxville, TN; St. Thomas (USVI); and St. Maarten, with additional routes and increased connections through Denver, Burbank, San Diego, and Baltimore.Analysis Article • Aug 28
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.18
The board of Southwest Airlines Co. ( NYSE:LUV ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 24th of September...Analysis Article • Aug 14
Southwest Airlines' (NYSE:LUV) Dividend Will Be $0.18
Southwest Airlines Co. ( NYSE:LUV ) will pay a dividend of $0.18 on the 24th of September. This payment means that the...Analysis Article • Jul 11
Southwest Airlines' (NYSE:LUV) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business
When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics...Analysis Article • Jun 11
Southwest Airlines' (NYSE:LUV) Dividend Will Be $0.18
The board of Southwest Airlines Co. ( NYSE:LUV ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the...Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
Southwest Airlines Is Delivering For Investors Again
Summary Southwest Airlines is undergoing significant changes, including product reconfiguration, charging for more checked bags, and adding red-eye flights to boost revenue and schedule competitiveness. Operational reliability is strong, and the company expects $1.5 billion in EBIT improvements by 2025, despite employee and customer adaptation challenges. Southwest's strong balance sheet and Boeing 737 MAX order book are key assets, with potential cost savings from ending fuel hedging and fleet modernization. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
The Southwest Turnaround: An Attractive Capacity Growth Plan Clouded By Capex Uncertainty
Summary Elliott Investment Management called for a significant overhaul at Southwest in 2024, including leadership changes and a comprehensive business review, prompting a transformation plan. Southwest's turnaround plan focuses on boosting revenues, improving fleet utilization, and optimizing capital allocation, targeting $4bn in additional EBIT and $1bn in FCF by FY27. The feasibility of Southwest's capacity growth plans is supported by tangible initiatives, but cost management, particularly capex, remains a critical and uncertain factor. While Southwest's potential for value creation is evident, the heavy reliance on uncertain capex reductions makes it challenging to adopt a bullish stance without further clarity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 19
Southwest Airlines Could Fly High On Demand Growth, But Needs To Improve Margins
Summary Southwest Airlines gets its prior hold rating from 2023 reaffirmed. Key positive factors are expected air travel growth in 2025, new global airline partnerships, an investment-grade credit rating, and low debt. Its gross and net income margins could use improvement compared to peers, as well as its dividend growth trend. Although it is trading near its moving average and undervalued vs its sector, it remains overvalued on fwd P/E vs key airline peers. Over-reliance on a Boeing fleet lacks fleet diversification and can have business impact in the event of further Boeing aircraft issues. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 34,667 | 2,313 | 1,029 | 4,566 | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 33,673 | 2,107 | 1,375 | 4,326 | 21 |
| 12/31/2026 | 32,703 | 1,303 | 24 | 3,256 | 21 |
| 3/31/2026 | 28,884 | 817 | -376 | 2,400 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 28,063 | 441 | -831 | 1,842 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 27,551 | 379 | -250 | 2,024 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 27,472 | 392 | -272 | 1,851 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 27,582 | 547 | -563 | 1,426 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 27,483 | 465 | -1,592 | 462 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 27,376 | -48 | -1,927 | 411 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 27,031 | 78 | -1,748 | 913 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 26,714 | 393 | -739 | 2,354 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 26,091 | 465 | -356 | 3,164 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 25,440 | 497 | -881 | 3,318 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 25,135 | 581 | -1,492 | 2,936 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 24,826 | 658 | -1,059 | 3,425 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 23,814 | 539 | -156 | 3,790 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 22,693 | 827 | 693 | 3,458 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 21,152 | 996 | 825 | 2,649 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 18,432 | 583 | 1,818 | 2,748 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 15,790 | 977 | 1,811 | 2,322 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 12,752 | 1 | 1,061 | 1,479 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 9,866 | -1,602 | 634 | 1,003 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 6,866 | -2,864 | -491 | -105 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 9,048 | -3,074 | -1,642 | -1,127 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 12,765 | -1,653 | -393 | 293 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 16,611 | 163 | 1,463 | 2,436 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 21,513 | 1,819 | 1,414 | 2,505 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 22,428 | 2,300 | N/A | 3,987 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 22,402 | 2,441 | N/A | 4,152 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 22,338 | 2,398 | N/A | 4,332 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 22,170 | 2,389 | N/A | 4,996 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 21,965 | 2,465 | N/A | 4,893 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 21,519 | 3,558 | N/A | 4,467 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 21,247 | 3,470 | N/A | 4,191 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 21,236 | 3,481 | N/A | 3,306 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 21,146 | 3,357 | N/A | 3,929 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 20,963 | 2,132 | N/A | 4,075 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 20,800 | 1,993 | N/A | 3,935 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 20,453 | 2,070 | N/A | 4,302 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 20,289 | 2,183 | N/A | 4,293 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 20,327 | 2,258 | N/A | 3,908 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 20,333 | 2,453 | N/A | 3,887 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 20,060 | 2,241 | N/A | 3,402 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 19,648 | 2,181 | N/A | 3,238 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 19,299 | 1,835 | N/A | 3,118 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 18,952 | 1,580 | N/A | 2,523 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUV's forecast earnings growth (22.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: LUV's earnings (22.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: LUV's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: LUV's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LUV's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: LUV's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/21 04:34 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Southwest Airlines Co. is covered by 38 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |
| Brandon Oglenski | Barclays |