Air Transport Services Group (NasdaqGS:ATSG) - Share price, News & Analysis

ATSG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

ATSG Stock Overview

Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 62.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 2.87% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Air Transport Services Group Competitors

United Parcel Service

NYSE:UPS

US$155.6b

FedEx

NYSE:FDX

US$54.8b

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings

NasdaqGS:AAWW

US$2.0b

AerCap Holdings

NYSE:AER

US$10.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Air Transport Services Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$29.75
52 Week High	US$34.54
52 Week Low	US$21.42
Beta	0.54
1 Month Change	-5.26%
3 Month Change	6.36%
1 Year Change	18.15%
3 Year Change	30.31%
5 Year Change	27.41%
Change since IPO	2,103.70%

Shareholder Returns

	ATSG	US Logistics	US Market
7D	-1.2%	-0.6%	-2.5%
1Y	18.1%	-19.1%	-10.4%

Return vs Industry: ATSG exceeded the US Logistics industry which returned -19.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ATSG exceeded the US Market which returned -10.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ATSG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ATSG volatility
ATSG Average Weekly Movement	5.4%
Logistics Industry Average Movement	6.2%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: ATSG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ATSG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1980	5,280	Rich Corrado	https://www.atsginc.com

Air Transport Services Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides aircraft leasing and air cargo transportation and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers aircraft, flight crews, aircraft maintenance, aircraft hull and liability insurance, and aviation fuel services; and aircraft maintenance and modification services, including airframe modification and heavy maintenance, component repairs, engineering services, and aircraft line maintenance. It also provides equipment maintenance services; cargo load transfer and package sorting services; crew training services; and airline express operation, line and heavy maintenance, and ground handling services.

Air Transport Services Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Air Transport Services Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ATSG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.20b
Earnings (TTM)	US$236.49m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.84b

9.3x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is ATSG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ATSG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.84b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.08b
Gross Profit	US$761.75m
Other Expenses	US$525.26m
Earnings	US$236.49m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.20
Gross Margin	41.31%
Net Profit Margin	12.82%
Debt/Equity Ratio	94.1%

How did ATSG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Air Transport Services Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ATSG ($29.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($79.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATSG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ATSG is good value based on its PE Ratio (9.3x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (11.7x).

PE vs Market: ATSG is good value based on its PE Ratio (9.3x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ATSG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.2x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ATSG is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.6x) compared to the US Logistics industry average (2.6x).

Future Growth

How is Air Transport Services Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

2.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ATSG's forecast earnings growth (2.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ATSG's earnings (2.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ATSG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ATSG's revenue (6.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ATSG's revenue (6.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Air Transport Services Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

33.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ATSG has a large one-off gain of $83.6M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: ATSG became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ATSG's earnings have grown significantly by 33.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ATSG has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ATSG has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Logistics industry (71.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ATSG's Return on Equity (17.5%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Air Transport Services Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ATSG's short term assets ($331.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($317.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: ATSG's short term assets ($331.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ATSG's net debt to equity ratio (91.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ATSG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 149.4% to 94.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ATSG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (45.9%).

Interest Coverage: ATSG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Air Transport Services Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATSG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATSG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATSG's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ATSG has not reported any payouts.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Transportation industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rich Corrado (61 yo)

2.67yrs

Tenure

US$2,600,154

Compensation

Mr. Richard F. Corrado, also known as Rich, is the President of Air Transport Services Group, Inc., since September 16, 2019 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Director since May 7, 2020. Mr. Co...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Rich's total compensation ($USD2.60M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.45M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Rich's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ATSG's management team is considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ATSG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ATSG insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/16 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31