Those who invested in Lumen Technologies (NYSE:LUMN) a year ago are up 215%

It hasn't been the best quarter for Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LUMN) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 15% in that time. On the other hand, over the last twelve months the stock has delivered rather impressive returns. We're very pleased to report the share price shot up 215% in that time. So we think most shareholders won't be too upset about the recent fall. Investors should be wondering whether the business itself has the fundamental value required to continue to drive gains.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Lumen Technologies

Lumen Technologies wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last year Lumen Technologies saw its revenue shrink by 10.0%. So we would not have expected the share price to rise 215%. It just goes to show the market doesn't always pay attention to the reported numbers. Of course, it could be that the market expected this revenue drop.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Lumen Technologies in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Lumen Technologies shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 215% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 5% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Lumen Technologies (1 doesn't sit too well with us) that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.