Has AST SpaceMobile’s 254% Surge in 2025 Already Priced In Its Satellite Breakthrough?

• If you are wondering whether AST SpaceMobile is still a smart bet after its massive run, or if the real upside has already passed, this breakdown will walk through whether the current price really matches the story.
• The stock has risen 3.8% over the last week, 18.9% over the past month, and an eye-catching 254.4% year to date, with a 1887.0% gain over three years.
• These moves have been fueled by headline-grabbing milestones in its space-based mobile broadband ambitions and progress on key partnerships that could turn its vision into recurring revenue. At the same time, new funding developments and growing market attention have shifted how investors are thinking about both its risk profile and its long-term potential.
• Right now, AST SpaceMobile only scores a 2/6 valuation check, which suggests the market might be pricing in a lot of future success already, but not necessarily in a consistent way across different methods. Next, we will examine those valuation approaches one by one, then finish with a more holistic way of thinking about what this price implies for long-term investors.

AST SpaceMobile scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: AST SpaceMobile Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today, aiming to estimate what the entire business is worth in present dollar terms.

For AST SpaceMobile, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is deeply negative at about $1,078 million, reflecting heavy investment and limited current revenue. Analyst and model projections suggest cash flows remain negative through 2027, then turn positive in 2028 and rise to roughly $4,396 million by 2035. The outer years are extrapolated from earlier estimates rather than directly forecast by analysts.

Putting all those projected cash flows together, Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $194.42 per share. Compared with the current share price, this indicates the stock is trading at a roughly 60.6% discount, which points to a meaningful gap between the market price and the model’s estimate of long term value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AST SpaceMobile is undervalued by 60.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for AST SpaceMobile.

Approach 2: AST SpaceMobile Price vs Book

Price to book is often a useful yardstick for asset heavy or early stage businesses where traditional earnings metrics are not yet meaningful. It compares what investors are paying for each dollar of net assets on the balance sheet. In general, faster growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher price to book, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually call for a more modest multiple.

AST SpaceMobile currently trades at about 17.36x book value, far above the broader Telecom industry average of roughly 1.23x and well ahead of its peer group at around 7.37x. That signals investors are assigning a substantial premium to its future potential relative to both the sector and closer comparables.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is designed to refine this comparison by estimating what a reasonable price to book should be after accounting for the company’s specific growth outlook, profitability profile, risk factors, industry context and market cap. Because it layers these fundamentals on top of simple peer and industry checks, it can give a more tailored sense of what “fair” looks like for a business like AST SpaceMobile. With the Fair Ratio sitting below today’s 17.36x, the market price appears to be embedding more optimism than this framework would support.

Result: OVERVALUED

PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AST SpaceMobile Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company with the numbers behind its valuation. A Narrative is your story about AST SpaceMobile, translated into assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins that roll into a clear financial forecast and an implied fair value. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors build and compare these Narratives in the Community page, so you can see how different stories about growth, execution risk and competition stack up against each other. Narratives then make decisions easier by setting out a fair value and showing how it compares to today’s share price, helping you decide whether the stock looks like a buy, hold or sell under your assumptions. Because Narratives are updated dynamically when fresh news, quarterly results or guidance arrive, your view can evolve with the facts instead of staying static. For example, for AST SpaceMobile some investors’ Narratives point to extremely high upside while others, using more conservative assumptions, arrive at much lower fair values.

Do you think there's more to the story for AST SpaceMobile? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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