If you’re holding HP (HPQ) or considering an investment, the latest earnings event is likely a key focus. This week, the company reported that both its revenue and earnings came in ahead of expectations for its fiscal third quarter of 2025. Investors are taking notice, but reactions have varied. Some view this as a sign that HP is regaining stability after a challenging year, while others point to competitive pressures and mixed analyst ratings as evidence that the company's best days may be in the past or perhaps not immediately ahead.
HP’s stock performance over the last year has reflected this uncertainty, with shares drifting lower overall despite a recent rebound. Over the past month, the stock rose nearly 2% and added about 15% over the past three months, recovering some losses but still showing a negative return for the year. While HP exceeded earnings expectations this quarter, discussions around its value compared to rival tech and AI companies remain active. The conversation has begun to shift from disappointment to cautious optimism, but the debate continues.
Following the recent positive surprise and a modest turnaround in momentum, investors may be weighing whether HP presents a bargain or if the market has already accounted for its prospects.
Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued
The most widely followed narrative currently suggests HP is trading very close to its estimated fair value, reflecting market consensus around its balanced future prospects and risks.
Accelerating adoption of AI-driven PCs and growth in premium device segments are fueling stronger-than-expected revenue growth, with AI PCs now over 25% of HP's mix and expected price uplifts of 5 to 10 percent, which directly supports higher top-line sales and margin expansion.
Want to know what’s powering HP’s latest valuation call? One critical assumption underpins this bold fair value. It is something even seasoned investors may overlook. Are you curious about the financial secrets behind those growth projections? Don’t miss the story behind HP’s market pricing signal and see which key numbers are moving the needle.
Result: Fair Value of $27.97 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.However, competitive pressure in PCs and ongoing declines in the print segment could challenge HP’s renewed optimism and put future growth at risk.
Find out about the key risks to this HP narrative.Another View: Different Methods, Different Stories
While the analyst consensus points to HP being fairly valued, our SWS DCF model takes a different angle and currently sees the company as trading well below its calculated fair value. Which approach makes more sense for you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.Build Your Own HP Narrative
If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, crafting your own HP narrative takes less than three minutes. Do it your way
A great starting point for your HP research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if HP might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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