Stock Analysis

Napco Security Technologies' (NASDAQ:NSSC) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NasdaqGS:NSSC
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It hasn't been the best quarter for Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 19% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. It's fair to say most would be happy with 108% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.

Although Napco Security Technologies has shed US$78m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Napco Security Technologies

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Napco Security Technologies achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 16% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:NSSC Earnings Per Share Growth January 13th 2025

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Napco Security Technologies' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Napco Security Technologies the TSR over the last 5 years was 112%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Napco Security Technologies shareholders are up 4.3% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 16% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. Before spending more time on Napco Security Technologies it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Napco Security Technologies might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.