Should You Investigate Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) At US$49.59?

While Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Lumentum Holdings’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Lumentum Holdings

What's The Opportunity In Lumentum Holdings?

According to our valuation model, Lumentum Holdings seems to be fairly priced at around 12% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Lumentum Holdings today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $56.15, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Lumentum Holdings’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Lumentum Holdings look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Lumentum Holdings' earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 70%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? LITE’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on LITE, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Lumentum Holdings at this point in time. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Lumentum Holdings and you'll want to know about it.

If you are no longer interested in Lumentum Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.