Is It Time To Reconsider Teradata (TDC) After Recent Share Price Recovery?

• If you are wondering whether Teradata is attractively priced or looking stretched at its current levels, you will want to understand what the valuation numbers are actually saying.
• The stock last closed at US$27.96, with returns of 5.8% over the past week, 10.8% over the past month, a 5.8% decline year to date, and 26.7% over the last year, alongside weaker 3 year and 5 year returns of 37.2% and 31.0% respectively.
• These mixed returns have kept Teradata on the radar for investors who pay attention to both shorter term price moves and longer term performance. Against that backdrop, the key question is whether the current share price fairly reflects what the underlying business is worth.
• Teradata currently has a value score of 5 out of 6, which suggests it screens as undervalued on most of Simply Wall St's checks. Next up is a look at different valuation approaches and how they compare, as well as a broader way of thinking about value that will be covered at the end of this article.

Teradata delivered 26.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Software industry.

Approach 1: Teradata Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s value, giving an estimate of what the entire business could be worth right now.

For Teradata, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $284.1 million. Analysts supply Free Cash Flow estimates out to 2028, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further to build a 10 year path. Under these assumptions, projected Free Cash Flow in 2035 is $463.8 million, all kept in today’s dollars using discount factors.

Putting those discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$63.54 per share, compared with the recent share price of US$27.96. On this DCF view, the model implies Teradata trades at roughly a 56.0% discount to its calculated fair value, which indicates potential upside according to these inputs.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Teradata is undervalued by 56.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Teradata.

Approach 2: Teradata Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value because it links what you pay per share directly to the earnings that support that share price. A higher P/E usually goes with higher expected growth or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can reflect lower growth expectations or higher risk.

Teradata currently trades on a P/E of 20.33x. That sits below the Software industry average of 30.34x and also below the peer group average of 38.45x, so on simple comparisons the shares are priced at a lower multiple of earnings than many competitors.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Teradata is 26.41x. This is a proprietary estimate of what a “normal” P/E might be for the company after considering factors such as its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. Because it adjusts for these elements, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a straight comparison with industry or peer averages, which treat very different businesses as if they were identical.

With the Fair Ratio of 26.41x above the current P/E of 20.33x, Teradata screens as undervalued on this earnings based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Teradata Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Teradata to the numbers by linking your view of its AI data platform, revenue mix, earnings path and margins to a forecast and a Fair Value. You can then compare that Fair Value with the current price of US$27.96 so you can decide how you want to act. Narratives on the Community page update automatically when fresh news or earnings land and capture very different viewpoints, such as a bullish Teradata story that lines up with a Fair Value around the US$49.00 analyst high target, and a cautious Teradata story that lines up with a Fair Value near the US$21.00 analyst low target.

For Teradata, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Teradata Narratives:

🐂 Teradata Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$33.78

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 17.2% undervalued

Revenue growth assumption: 0.99%

• Focuses on Teradata's cloud neutral AI data platform and product development supporting demand from AI driven workloads and a broader addressable market.
• Assumes margin improvement and higher earnings over time helped by recurring revenue, cost discipline and share repurchases.
• Highlights risks around revenue pressure, competition from hyperscalers and open source tools, and the pace of cloud migration, with analyst targets centered around a US$33.78 fair value.

🐻 Teradata Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$21.00

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 33.1% overvalued

Revenue growth assumption: 1.98% decline

• Assumes faster enterprise migration to integrated cloud platforms and open source tools puts pressure on Teradata's market share, revenue stability and long term growth.
• Builds in shrinking margins and lower earnings, with concerns around price competition, customer churn and Teradata's on premises heritage.
• Uses a US$21.00 fair value tied to lower revenue and margin expectations and a higher required P/E in future, reflecting a more cautious stance from the bearish analyst cohort.

Do you think there's more to the story for Teradata? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com