Is It Too Late To Consider Rubrik After Its 27.7% Weekly Surge?

• If you are wondering whether Rubrik at around $89.91 is still a smart buy after its run up, or if you are late to the party, this breakdown will help you understand what the market is really pricing in.
• Rubrik has jumped 27.7% in the last week and is up 35.5% year to date, with a 21.2% gain over the past year, which indicates that investor expectations have shifted quickly.
• Recent headlines have focused on Rubrik's expanding footprint in cyber resilience and data security, as enterprises increase their focus on protecting mission critical information. The market has been rewarding software names that can connect growth to cybersecurity spending and recurring revenue, which helps explain some of the recent strength in the share price.
• Despite that momentum, Rubrik only scores a 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. In the sections that follow, we unpack what different valuation approaches suggest about the stock today and then finish with a more structured way to think about its long term value story.

Rubrik scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Rubrik Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to a present value.

For Rubrik, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $237.2 million, and analysts expect this to grow quickly as the business scales. On Simply Wall St’s 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, projected Free Cash Flow climbs to around $787.5 million by 2030, with further years extrapolated beyond the period where analysts provide formal estimates. These projections, all in $, are discounted back to today to arrive at an intrinsic value per share of roughly $85.97.

With Rubrik’s current share price around $89.91, the model implies the stock is about 4.6% overvalued. In valuation terms, that is a very small gap and well within the usual margin of error for any forecast driven model, so the DCF points to Rubrik trading close to its estimated fair value.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Rubrik is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Rubrik.

Approach 2: Rubrik Price vs Sales

For a high growth software business that is not yet focused on mature profitability, the Price to Sales multiple is often the cleanest way to compare valuation, because it ties directly to how efficiently the company can convert revenue growth into long term cash flows.

Investors typically accept a higher Price to Sales ratio when they expect faster growth or see lower risk in the business model, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually warrants a lower multiple. Rubrik currently trades on a Price to Sales ratio of about 15.0x, which is well above the broader Software industry average of roughly 5.1x and also higher than the peer group average near 9.0x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by asking what Price to Sales multiple would be reasonable once you factor in Rubrik’s specific growth outlook, profitability profile, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. That model suggests a Fair Ratio of about 10.5x, which is meaningfully below the current 15.0x market multiple. This implies investors are paying a premium to the fundamentals that can be justified today.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1447 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Rubrik Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you attach your own story about a company to the numbers. You can do this by linking your assumptions for Rubrik’s future revenue, margins and fair value to a clear forecast, comparing that fair value to the current market price to consider whether to buy, hold or sell, and then having that view automatically update as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish Rubrik Narrative that places fair value closer to about $125 based on faster revenue expansion and stronger margins. A more cautious investor might set a fair value nearer $97 using slower growth and lower profitability, with both perspectives expressed as living, dynamic stories rather than static price targets.

Do you think there's more to the story for Rubrik? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com