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FCMB Group Delivers Strong 9M 2025 Performance and Positive Q1 2026 Outlook Amid Operational Pressures

Published
31 Jan 25
Updated
11 Dec 25
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Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value
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1Y
22.2%
7D
4.8%

Author's Valuation

₦922.2% overvalued intrinsic discount

Wane_Investment_House's Fair Value

Last Update 11 Dec 25

Fair value Decreased 13%

Valuation due Excess issuance of additional share

Executive Summary

FCMB Group Plc and its subsidiaries delivered a robust performance for the nine months ended 30 September 2025, underpinned by strong net interest income growth, disciplined cost management, and resilient customer deposit mobilization in a challenging macroeconomic environment.

  • Profit Before Tax (PBT) rose 46% YoY to ₦134.5 billion, supported by higher net interest income, growing fee and commission income, and improved operating efficiency.
  • Profit After Tax (PAT) increased 52% YoY to ₦125.5 billion, reflecting resilient core banking operations and effective risk management.
  • Gross earnings expanded 41% YoY to ₦828.1 billion, driven by lending volume growth, improved asset yields, and diversified revenue streams.
  • The Group’s balance sheet remained strong, with Total Assets at ₦7.23 trillion, up 2.5% from FY2024, supported by increased cash balances, investment securities, and customer deposits.
  • Customer deposits reached ₦4.40 trillion, reinforcing the Group’s liquidity and franchise strength.

For Q1 2026, FCMB Group anticipates continued revenue momentum, projecting gross earnings of ₦293.8 billion, PBT of ₦74.5 billion, and PAT of ₦62.6 billion, supported by stable net interest margins, fee income growth, and disciplined cost management.

Financial Highlights – Statement of Profit or Loss (₦’million)

₦’million      9M 2025       9M 2024       % Δ

Gross Earnings       828,128        587,773        +41%

Net Interest Income        350,827        173,798        +102%

Net Fee & Commission Income 56,191          41,458          +35%

Net Trading Income        37,255          49,849          -25%

Other Income / Gains     22,332          89,165          -75%

Impairment Losses (57,122)        (44,432)        +29%

Personnel Expenses         (71,870)        (56,538)        +27%

Depreciation & Amortisation    (12,491)        (10,101)        +24%

General & Administrative Expenses    (95,380)        (62,238)        +53%

Other Operating Expenses       (59,214)        (40,250)        +47%

Profit Before Tax    134,497        91,832          +46%

Income Tax (9,047)          (9,437)          -4%

Profit After Tax       125,451        82,395          +52%

EPS (₦)         3.91    5.55    -30%*

*EPS moderated due to additional share issuance.

Revenue Performance

FCMB delivered strong top-line growth, driven by:

Key Growth Drivers:

  • Interest Income: ₦734.1 billion (+65%), supported by higher loan volumes and improved asset yields.
  • Fee and Commission Income: ₦56.2 billion (+35%), reflecting growth in transaction volumes, trade finance, and digital channels.
  • Trading Income & Other Gains: ₦37.3 billion, impacted by market volatility but partially offset by FX gains.
  • Net Impairment Losses: ₦57.1 billion, reflecting prudent risk provisioning.

Revenue growth was broad-based despite inflationary and macroeconomic pressures.

Profitability and Margins

  • Net Interest Income: Increased 102% YoY to ₦350.8 billion. Margins moderated slightly due to higher funding costs.
  • Operating Expenses: Increased 43% YoY, driven by personnel expansion, technology investment, and inflationary cost pressures.
  • PAT: ₦125.5 billion (+52%), demonstrating operational resilience and effective risk management.

Balance Sheet Overview (₦’million)

₦’million      30 Sep 2025 31 Dec 2024 % Δ

Total Assets  7,232,000      7,054,166      +2.5%

Total Equity  805,932        688,981        +17%

Loans & Advances          2,289,000      2,357,303      -2.9%

Customer Deposits          4,396,000      4,296,486      +2.3%

Cash & Cash Equivalents          1,559,264      795,387        +96%

Borrowings   400,718        359,862        +11%

Retained Earnings 291,908        188,438        +55%

Other Reserves      177,459        186,813        -5%

Interpretation:

  • Asset growth supported by increased cash, investment securities, and deposits.
  • Equity strengthened through retained earnings and capital issuance.
  • Loan book stable, reflecting prudent credit risk management.
  • Customer deposits reinforce liquidity and funding stability.

Key Ratios & Indicators (9M 2025)

Metric          Performance

Gross Earnings Growth    +41%

Net Interest Income Growth      +102%

PBT Growth  +46%

PAT Growth +52%

Asset Growth         +2.5%

Deposit Growth     +2.3%

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio     ~52%

Cost-to-Income Ratio      Elevated (due to investment in technology and staff)

Insights:

  • Resilient profitability despite higher operating costs.
  • Strong liquidity and capital position.
  • FX and trading gains contributed positively to profitability.

Q1 2026 Outlook

  • Gross Earnings: ₦293.8 billion
  • Net Interest Income: ₦137.9 billion
  • PBT: ₦74.5 billion
  • PAT: ₦62.6 billion
  • Cash Position: Expected increase to ₦773.9 billion

Drivers:

  • Continued net interest margin stability
  • Growth in transaction and fee-based income
  • Prudent cost and working capital management

Risks:

  • Inflationary pressures and FX volatility may impact margins.

Strategic Insights

  • Retail & SME Lending: Expansion continues to support NIM stability.
  • Digital Transformation: Driving higher transaction volumes and fee income.
  • Liquidity & Capital Management: Strong cash and deposit base mitigate funding risk.
  • Operational Efficiency: Investments in technology and infrastructure support long-term cost control.

Strengths:

  • Diversified revenue streams
  • Strong balance sheet and liquidity
  • Resilient asset quality
  • Growing digital and retail franchise

Weaknesses:

  • Elevated operating expenses
  • Margin pressure from rising funding costs

Analyst View

“FCMB Group delivered a strong 9M 2025 performance, driven by net interest growth, diversified revenue streams, and robust balance sheet management. Strategic investments in technology and digital channels position the Group for sustainable growth in FY2026.”

Conclusion

FCMB Group Plc demonstrated strong 9M 2025 performance with robust earnings growth, balance sheet expansion, and resilience in a challenging operating environment. With continued focus on digital transformation, retail and SME banking, and prudent risk management, the Group is well-positioned for a positive 2026 outlook, enhancing shareholder value and operational sustainability.

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Disclaimer

The user Wane_Investment_House holds no position in NGSE:FCMB. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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