What Does Circle’s 65% Rally Mean for Its True Value in 2025?

Thinking about what to do next with Circle Internet Group stock? You’re not alone. After all, its journey in the markets lately has given investors plenty to talk about. The share price just closed at 137.47, and while the past week saw a dip of 7.4%, the bigger picture looks far brighter. Circle Internet Group is up an impressive 65.2% year-to-date. That kind of momentum naturally raises the question: is there still room to grow, or are traders pricing in too much optimism?

Much of this enthusiasm comes in the wake of industry-wide developments that have recharged investor confidence in the sector. Broader adoption of blockchain technologies and the growing importance of stablecoins are nudging sentiment, with Circle positioned as a potential key player. Of course, these tailwinds can cut both ways, boosting perceived risk as well as reward.

But what about valuation? Here’s where things get interesting. By the numbers, Circle Internet Group currently scores 0 out of 6 on key undervaluation checks. In other words, traditional valuation screens don’t see the stock as undervalued on any of their main metrics. Does that mean it’s overpriced, or could the market be overlooking something?

In the next section, we’ll break down the different valuation approaches and see what story they tell. And stick around until the end—there’s a smarter perspective to stock valuation that you won’t want to miss.

Circle Internet Group scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Circle Internet Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model helps estimate a company’s worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. This approach provides a financially grounded way to assess intrinsic value, based on what the company is expected to generate in terms of free cash flow.

For Circle Internet Group, analysts forecast Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $461.0 million for the latest period. Projections suggest that FCF could reach $1,415.5 million in 2029, based on input from multiple analysts for the next five years and extrapolations for the longer term. Each year’s cash flow is adjusted ("discounted") to reflect its value in today’s dollars, ensuring future expectations are balanced against risk and time.

• Latest 12 months FCF: $461.0 million
• Projected 2029 FCF: $1,415.5 million
• Valuation model: 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The result is an estimated intrinsic value of $137.43 per share, which aligns almost exactly with the current market price of $137.47. The implied discount is essentially 0.0%, indicating the stock is neither particularly cheap nor expensive right now.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Circle Internet Group.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Circle Internet Group's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Circle Internet Group Price vs Sales

For tech-driven companies like Circle Internet Group, which may be investing heavily for future growth, the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio is often the preferred valuation yardstick. Unlike earnings or book value, revenue figures are not easily manipulated, making the PS ratio a reliable tool for assessing whether the current share price fairly reflects the company’s growth profile and business model.

The "right" PS ratio depends on market sentiment about Circle’s revenue growth, profitability, and risk. Rapidly expanding software firms, for example, tend to command higher multiples than stable, slow-growth businesses, because investors are willing to pay up for that anticipated growth. However, they also account for risks such as competition or margin pressure.

• Circle’s current PS ratio: 15.0x
• Peer average PS ratio: 12.87x
• Industry average PS ratio: 5.10x

While Circle trades above both its industry and peer averages, Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio goes a step further. It is a purpose-built benchmark derived from Circle’s individual traits, including expected revenue growth, profitability, risk factors, business model, and market cap, rather than relying solely on broad peer or industry comparisons. This gives a more tailored picture of what would be "fair" for Circle right now.

In this case, Circle’s actual PS ratio is almost exactly in line with its Fair Ratio, suggesting there is little divergence between what the market is asking investors to pay and what the company’s fundamentals justify.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Circle Internet Group Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. Simply put, a Narrative is your story behind the numbers. It is a way to connect your view on Circle Internet Group’s future growth, profitability, and uniqueness to a financial forecast and Fair Value calculation. Rather than relying solely on static ratios, Narratives help you interpret the numbers, combine your assumptions about revenue and earnings, and visualize the result in real time.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors can easily create or follow Narratives for any stock. This makes it simple and accessible to compare different viewpoints and see how changes in market conditions, news, or earnings updates instantly flow through to each Narrative’s Fair Value estimate versus the current share price.

Narratives empower you to make smarter decisions. If your Narrative’s Fair Value is above the market price, it could be a signal to buy, and if it is below, you might choose to hold off or sell. For example, some investors see Circle Internet Group as worth as much as $326 per share due to strong global stablecoin growth, while others have set Fair Value lower, such as $122, to account for regulatory risks and revenue concentration.

Do you think there's more to the story for Circle Internet Group? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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