Box (BOX): Valuation Perspective After Securing FLYING WHALES as a High-Profile Client in Regulated Sectors

Box (NYSE:BOX) landed a fresh win as FLYING WHALES, a government-backed aerospace company, announced it will broaden its use of Box’s platform to tackle advanced data, compliance, and security demands.

See our latest analysis for Box.

That high-profile win with FLYING WHALES comes at a time when Box is aiming to strengthen its foothold in heavily regulated and innovation-driven sectors. The share price has edged up 4.6% so far in 2025, and while the 1-year total shareholder return stands at 2.7%, it is the long-term numbers that really tell the story. Box has delivered an 82% total return over five years, showing the company’s steady ability to deliver value for patient investors even as short-term trading momentum comes and goes.

If you’re interested in what else is stirring in tech beyond this aerospace partnership, check out the full list of pioneering companies in our See the full list for free..

But with Box’s shares trading at a double-digit discount to analyst price targets and an even steeper discount to some intrinsic valuations, the real question is whether this creates a genuine buying opportunity or if the market is correct to be cautious about future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.6% Undervalued

Box’s widely-followed narrative assigns a fair value above the current share price, creating a bullish debate over whether the market is mispricing the company’s future cash flows as digital transformation accelerates.

Ongoing investments in AI-powered metadata extraction, no-code workflow automation, and integration with leading AI model providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) and enterprise software ecosystems (Microsoft, Google, Salesforce) are deepening Box's value proposition. This supports premium pricing, reduces churn, and contributes to margin expansion over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which explosive assumption is driving the gap between Wall Street and Main Street? This narrative relies on a combination of premium pricing, expanding margins, and major seat expansion. Interested in how these financial levers come together to justify a valuation above today’s price? The numbers behind this thesis may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $37.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, fierce competition from cloud giants and stricter data privacy regulations could still dampen Box’s growth trajectory and threaten its pricing power.

Find out about the key risks to this Box narrative.

Another View: The Multiples Comparison

Looking at Box through the lens of its price-to-earnings ratio paints a more cautious picture. The shares trade at 25.4 times earnings, which is well below both the US Software industry average of 36.1x and the peer average of 30x. However, the fair ratio—that is, the level the market could revert to—is just 17.1x. That gap signals upside potential if sentiment shifts, but it also means if expectations stumble, there is plenty of room for the valuation to fall. Which perspective holds more weight as the market digests Box’s growth narrative?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Box Narrative

If you have a different angle or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own Box thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Box research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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