BigBear.ai (BBAI): Assessing Valuation After Strong Multi‑Year Gains and Recent Share Price Pullback

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) has been on a wild ride, with the stock up roughly 55% year to date and more than 150% over the past year, despite lingering net losses.

See our latest analysis for BigBear.ai Holdings.

The recent pullback, including a 1 month share price return of minus 11.0 percent from a 90 day gain of 26.1 percent and a standout 3 year total shareholder return of 678.1 percent, suggests momentum is cooling, but the longer term narrative remains powerful.

If BigBear.ai has you thinking about where else rapid growth could emerge, now is a good time to explore high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next wave candidates.

With shares still hovering near analyst targets despite hefty historical gains and ongoing losses, investors now face a key question: is BigBear.ai quietly undervalued ahead of its next leg higher, or is the market already factoring in all that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.3% Undervalued

With BigBear.ai closing at $6.38 against a narrative fair value of $6.67, expectations lean slightly higher and set the scene for ambitious growth assumptions.

With a healthy backlog of $385 million and increased emphasis on multiyear programs, BigBear.ai is positioned to build a stable revenue stream, supporting sustainable growth and improved net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue runway and margin lift could defend such a steep future earnings multiple, far above typical IT names? The narrative reveals the bold math behind that premium valuation, including how gradual growth, shifting profitability and share dilution are all expected to line up.

Result: Fair Value of $6.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, revenue lumpiness and delays in government procurement could quickly undermine the growth narrative if new contracts and funding fail to materialize as expected.

Find out about the key risks to this BigBear.ai Holdings narrative.

Another View: Lofty Sales Multiple Raises Questions

While the narrative fair value suggests BigBear.ai is modestly undervalued, its price to sales ratio of 19.3 times sits far above the US IT industry at 2.4 times, peers at 0.6 times, and an estimated fair ratio of 2.5 times. This leaves little room for execution missteps.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own BigBear.ai Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized perspective in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BigBear.ai Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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