BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) Stock Overview
Provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
BBAI Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
JO
Jolt_Communications
Community ContributorUS$6.85FV • 64.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
73.0%Revenue growth p.a.
3.1k
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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$4.14 |
| 52 Week High | US$9.39 |
| 52 Week Low | US$2.96 |
| Beta | 3.24 |
| 1 Month Change | 15.64% |
| 3 Month Change | -13.39% |
| 1 Year Change | 23.21% |
| 3 Year Change | 51.09% |
| 5 Year Change | -57.23% |
| Change since IPO | -57.88% |
Recent News & Updates
BBAI: Federal Contract Recovery Will Support Medium Term Revenue Guidance Execution
Analysts have reduced their average price target on BigBear.ai Holdings by $1 to around $6, reflecting lower sales estimates and updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following the latest Q4 report and FY26 guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are balancing reduced price targets with a focus on execution, balance sheet progress, and the medium term growth profile implied by management guidance.BigBear.ai's AI Transformation: Will Investors Reward The Pivot?
Apr 07
BBAI: Government Contract Stabilization Will Drive Confidence In 2026 Outlook
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings The implied analyst price target for BigBear.ai has moved lower by about $1.33, as analysts factor in reduced fair value estimates and target cuts from $6 to $5 and from $8 to $6. These changes are being attributed to softer sales expectations, federal contract disruptions, and ongoing execution risk.Recent updates
BBAI: Federal Contract Recovery Will Support Medium Term Revenue Guidance Execution
Analysts have reduced their average price target on BigBear.ai Holdings by $1 to around $6, reflecting lower sales estimates and updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations following the latest Q4 report and FY26 guidance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are balancing reduced price targets with a focus on execution, balance sheet progress, and the medium term growth profile implied by management guidance.BigBear.ai's AI Transformation: Will Investors Reward The Pivot?
Apr 07BBAI: Government Contract Stabilization Will Drive Confidence In 2026 Outlook
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings The implied analyst price target for BigBear.ai has moved lower by about $1.33, as analysts factor in reduced fair value estimates and target cuts from $6 to $5 and from $8 to $6. These changes are being attributed to softer sales expectations, federal contract disruptions, and ongoing execution risk.BBAI: Federal Contract Recovery Will Test Revenue Guidance And Balance Sheet Progress
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings The analyst price target for BigBear.ai has been lowered by $1, as analysts factor in reduced sales estimates, ongoing contract related revenue headwinds and execution risk, while also acknowledging balance sheet improvements and the planned revenue contribution from the Ask Sage acquisition. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed setup for BigBear.ai, with analysts trimming price targets and highlighting contract related pressure, while still pointing to specific areas that could support valuation over time.BBAI: Future Contract Wins Will Test Revenue Guidance And Balance Sheet Improvements
Analysts have trimmed their overall price expectations for BigBear.ai, with the blended target moving from about $7 to roughly $5.50. They cite reduced sales forecasts, ongoing pressure from lumpy government contracts, and a modestly higher discount rate, even as they factor in higher projected revenue growth, slightly stronger margins, and a lower assumed future P/E.
BBAI: Lumpy Federal Contracts Will Eventually Reward Patience Despite Ongoing Margin Pressure
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for BigBear.ai to $6 from $7, citing recent research that highlights pressured near term fundamentals, a 20.1% year over year revenue decline in Q3 tied to federal program disruptions, and continued execution risk around lumpy government contracts and ongoing operating losses. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have taken a more cautious stance on BigBear.ai, pointing to recent operating trends and contract timing as key sources of risk.BBAI: Execution On Government Contracts Will Shape 2025 Revenue Outlook
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings Analysts have trimmed their price target on BigBear.ai to US$6 from US$7, citing pressured near term fundamentals after a 20.1% revenue decline in Q3 and ongoing execution risk tied to lumpy government contracts that continue to weigh on margins and operating results. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more cautious stance on BigBear.ai, with the rating shifted to Neutral and the price target cut to US$6 from US$7.BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 36% Price Plummet
Feb 06
BigBear.ai’s CargoSeer Technology Acquisition: Expanding Mission-Critical AI in Border Security, Trade Intelligence & Customs Enforcement
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI), a specialist in mission-ready artificial intelligence for national security and defense customers, has announced the acquisition of select technologies from CargoSeer, Ltd.BBAI: Lumpy Federal Contracts And Margin Pressure Will Continue To Depress Sentiment
Narrative Update on BigBear.ai Holdings Analysts have lowered their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings to US$6 from US$7, citing pressured near term fundamentals with Q3 revenue down 20.1% year over year, continued operating losses, margin pressure, and elevated execution risk tied to lumpy government contracts. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have turned more cautious on BigBear.ai Holdings, cutting the price target to US$6 from US$7 and moving to a more neutral stance on the stock.Strategic Partnership with the Kraft Group, Balance Sheet Deleveraging, and Mixed Market Reaction
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (“BigBear.ai” or “the Company”), a provider of mission-ready artificial intelligence solutions for national security and complex enterprise environments, has announced a strategic partnership with the Kraft Group , encompassing both commercial collaboration and a high-profile marketing alliance with the New England Patriots.BBAI: Lumpy Government Contracts Will Keep Earnings And Sentiment Under Pressure
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for BigBear.ai Holdings from $3.50 to $5.00, while also lifting assumed revenue growth and the future P/E multiple. However, they point to recent price target cuts and a downgrade to Neutral as signs that near term pressure from lumpy government contracts and weaker Q3 revenue still weighs on sentiment.BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) – Strategic Defense Partnership Reinforces Mission-Critical AI Positioning
Author: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) continues to deepen its positioning in mission-critical, government-focused artificial intelligence with the announcement of a strategic partnership with C Speed, LLC , a U.S.-based radar and defense solutions provider.BBAI: Airport Platform Rollout And 2025 Revenue Outlook Will Drive Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings by approximately 0.2 percent to about 6.67 dollars. This change reflects marginal adjustments to discount-rate and long-term valuation assumptions rather than any major shift in the company’s fundamental outlook.BBAI: Airport Deployments And 2025 Revenue Outlook Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on BigBear.ai Holdings to reflect a slightly lower profit margin outlook, partially offset by a marginally reduced discount rate and stable long term growth and valuation assumptions. What's in the News Opened its first Middle East office at the World Trade Center Abu Dhabi, reinforcing long term investment in the region and expanding partnerships with Vigilix and Easy Lease (Key Developments) Signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding with Pahang Aerospace City Development Berhad and partners to support AI driven border operations and the development of Malaysia's first international spaceport (Key Developments) Deployed the veriScan biometric identity platform to support U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Enhanced Passenger Processing program at Chicago O'Hare International Airport, significantly reducing average processing times (Key Developments) Announced multiple Enhanced Passenger Processing deployments, including at Nashville International Airport, to improve security and shorten wait times for returning U.S. citizens (Key Developments) Issued revenue guidance for 2025, projecting annual revenue between 125 million dollars and 140 million dollars (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: unchanged at 6.67, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate.BBAI: Key 2025 Revenue Developments And New Partnerships Will Influence Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for BigBear.ai Holdings from $6.33 to $6.67. This reflects improved profit margin expectations and a more favorable discount rate in their updated outlook.BBAI: Revenue Guidance And Partnerships Will Shape 2025 Performance Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for BigBear.ai Holdings from $5.83 to $6.33. This reflects greater confidence in the company's stronger projected revenue growth, despite slightly higher discount rates and modestly lower profit margins.BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Rockets 76% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
Oct 15Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Shares Dive 26%
Aug 19Analysts Just Slashed Their BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) EPS Numbers
Aug 13BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) Stock Rockets 44% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
Jun 25Health Check: How Prudently Does BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Use Debt?
Jun 18
International Expansion And Alliances Will Shape Our Future
Strategic focus on international expansion and regional partnerships aims to boost revenue and global presence through successful pilots and enduring programs.BigBear.ai: Trapped By Its Own Financing - Limited Upside
Apr 23BigBear.ai's Meltdown Is Well Deserved: Minimal Growth Prospects Ahead
Mar 16Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) After Its Latest Results
Mar 09BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) 53% Dip Still Leaving Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Its P/SRatio
Mar 08BigBear.ai: The Big AI Failure, Strong Sell
Feb 06BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce
Jan 18BigBear.ai Holdings Stock: New CEO Kevin McAleenan Sparks A Rally
Jan 17Would BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Be Better Off With Less Debt?
Dec 21Market Participants Recognise BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) Revenues Pushing Shares 28% Higher
Nov 22BigBear.ai's Rally: Too Much Bull For This Bear, Capital Raise Likely Coming
Aug 21BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:BBAI) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion
Jul 17Does BigBear.ai Holdings (NYSE:BBAI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
May 04BigBear.ai: Don't Chase This Meme Stock (Rating Downgrade)
Apr 12BigBear.ai: After A Massive Surge, Now Entering Hibernation Mode?
Mar 08Shareholder Returns
| BBAI | US IT | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 11.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1Y | 23.2% | -1.2% | 27.8% |
Return vs Industry: BBAI exceeded the US IT industry which returned -1.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BBAI underperformed the US Market which returned 27.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BBAI volatility | |
|---|---|
| BBAI Average Weekly Movement | 11.9% |
| IT Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: BBAI's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: BBAI's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1988 | 579 | Kevin McAleenan | bigbear.ai |
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Simulation, a course of action analysis and digital twin solution; and Next-Gen Decision Support solution for macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting. The company also provides cybersecurity solutions, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered/machine-accelerated binary analysis, cyber-physical systems vulnerability testing and evaluation, vulnerability assessment as a service, and specialized services for the department of defense and intelligence community; and autonomous systems solutions, AI/machine learning (ML) decision intelligence solutions, and AI orchestration as a service, as well as specialized consulting services.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| BBAI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.97b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$293.91m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$127.67m |
15.4x
P/S Ratio-6.7x
P/E RatioIs BBAI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BBAI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$127.67m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$99.19m |
| Gross Profit | US$28.48m |
| Other Expenses | US$322.39m |
| Earnings | -US$293.91m |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
May 05, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.62 |
| Gross Margin | 22.31% |
| Net Profit Margin | -230.21% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 17.5% |
How did BBAI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/03 07:12 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is covered by 4 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Ruykhaver | Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. |
| Scott Buck | H.C. Wainwright & Co. |
| Michael Latimore | Northland Capital Markets |