Pagaya Technologies (PGY): Reassessing Valuation After a Volatile Year of Big Gains and a Sharp Pullback

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) has been on a wild ride this year, with the stock soaring more than 140% year to date but sliding roughly 36% over the past 3 months, leaving investors reassessing expectations.

See our latest analysis for Pagaya Technologies.

That kind of split personality, with a 147.35% year to date share price return but a steep 36.07% three month share price pullback, suggests early year enthusiasm is cooling as investors recut expectations around growth, risk and what they are willing to pay for Pagaya’s story.

If Pagaya’s swings have your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in high growth tech and AI stocks and compare how other names are being priced.

With Pagaya still trading well below analyst targets yet boasting triple digit multi year returns, the key question now is whether the recent pullback marks an undervalued entry point or a market that already prices in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 41.2% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting well above Pagaya Technologies last close of $23.82, the storyline leans toward a sizable upside still on the table.

Persistent investment and advancement in proprietary AI-driven underwriting, combined with growing data network effects from onboarding more partners, enhance credit decision accuracy and operational scalability, supporting higher net margins and improved long-term profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady double digit growth, a sharp margin flip into profitability, and a moderate future earnings multiple can all coexist in one price target? The most followed narrative lays out a detailed roadmap, from expanding revenue streams to compounding returns, all discounted back at a specific hurdle rate. Want to see exactly how those moving parts add up to today’s fair value call?

Result: Fair Value of $40.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, tighter regulation of AI underwriting or the loss of a major lending partner could quickly challenge these optimistic growth and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Pagaya Technologies narrative.

Build Your Own Pagaya Technologies Narrative

If this view does not fully match your own, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in under three minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Pagaya Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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