Nebius Group (NBIS): Revisiting Valuation After a 166% Year-to-Date Rally

Nebius Group (NBIS) has quietly become one of the market’s more polarising AI infrastructure plays, with shares sliding about 7% today but still up roughly 166% year to date.

See our latest analysis for Nebius Group.

That pullback comes after a roaring year, with Nebius’ year to date share price return of roughly 166% and a 12 month total shareholder return of about 177% showing that momentum is still strong, but now facing a healthy reality check on expectations.

If Nebius has put AI infrastructure on your radar, it is worth scanning other potential beneficiaries across high growth tech and AI stocks for more ideas before the next leg of this theme plays out.

After such a vertiginous climb, investors now face the real question: is Nebius still trading at a discount to its AI infrastructure potential, or has the market already priced in the bulk of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 49.1% Undervalued

With the most followed narrative putting Nebius’ fair value near $159 against a last close of $81.14, the gap in expectations is striking.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.6 for Nebius Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $90.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $47.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies a fair value nearly double today’s price? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, shifting margins, and an unusually rich future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts add up to that target? Dive in to unpack the full playbook behind this valuation call.

Result: Fair Value of $159 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this bullish setup could be derailed if hyperscaler consolidation squeezes Nebius’ pricing power, or if large contract deployments stumble and expose execution risks.

Find out about the key risks to this Nebius Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

If you see the story differently, or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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