Revenues Not Telling The Story For MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) After Shares Rise 32%

MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 32% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 29%.

Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in the United States' IT industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.4x, you may consider MongoDB as a stock to avoid entirely with its 11.7x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for MongoDB

What Does MongoDB's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

MongoDB could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/S ratio from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think MongoDB's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as MongoDB's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 22% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 105% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 16% each year over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 19% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this information, we find it concerning that MongoDB is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has lead to MongoDB's P/S soaring as well. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for MongoDB, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for MongoDB you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of MongoDB's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.