Is Intuit’s Share Price Run Justified Amid AI Expansion in 2025?

If you’re holding Intuit stock or thinking about getting in, it’s perfectly normal to feel a bit of FOMO looking at those chart-topping returns. The company’s share price has jumped 7.4% in just the last week, easily outpacing the broader market. Over the past month, Intuit is up 5.5%. Expand your view to a whole year, and the return clocks in at 10.3%. Take the long-term lens and things get even more impressive, with a robust 78.0% gain over three years and a spectacular 122.9% in the last five years.

These numbers reflect more than just investor enthusiasm. Market tailwinds, digital adoption trends, and Intuit’s ongoing business evolution have helped recalibrate risk perceptions and injected renewed optimism into the stock. Investors are paying close attention to how software-driven businesses, especially in fintech, are supporting ongoing growth, even amidst periodic volatility.

However, despite these strong returns, questions remain about whether Intuit’s current share price still offers fair value. According to several key measures, the company earns a valuation score of 2 out of 6. This may indicate there could still be room for upside, depending on the lens you use. In the next section, we will break down the major valuation approaches that analysts rely on and see how they compare for Intuit. Keep reading for an even better way to cut through the noise and truly assess what this stock is worth.

Intuit scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Intuit Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates Intuit’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach aims to capture the true, underlying worth of the company based on expected performance, rather than just current market sentiment.

Currently, Intuit generates Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $6.0 Billion. Analysts project significant growth, with estimates reaching $7.8 Billion in 2027. Extending the horizon further out using Simply Wall St's extrapolations, the FCF could approach $11.7 Billion by 2030. This reflects a robust trajectory, especially for a mature software business, and highlights confidence in Intuit’s earnings power and underlying market demand.

Based on this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, the estimated intrinsic fair value stands at $742.79 per share. This is approximately 5.9% higher than the current share price, suggesting that the stock may be trading just below its true worth.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Intuit.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Intuit's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Intuit Price vs Earnings (PE Ratio) Analysis

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used benchmark for valuing profitable companies like Intuit. It measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's earnings, making it especially useful for mature, revenue-generating software businesses where consistent profits are expected.

What is considered a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio depends heavily on expectations for future earnings growth and the level of risk investors are willing to accept. Higher growth or lower risk typically justifies a higher PE, while slower growth or greater uncertainty leads to lower multiples.

Intuit is currently trading at a PE ratio of 50.38x. This is above the industry average for software companies, which sits at 36.20x, but below the peer group average of 60.82x. While comparing with these benchmarks can be helpful, it does not fully account for unique company-specific factors and risk profiles.

This is where Simply Wall St's proprietary 'Fair Ratio' comes into play. This metric blends factors such as Intuit’s projected earnings growth, profit margins, size, risk, and industry dynamics to deliver a more nuanced valuation baseline. For Intuit, the Fair PE Ratio is calculated at 44.31x. This is slightly below Intuit's current PE, but not by a wide margin, suggesting the share price is broadly in line with expectations for a high-quality, fast-growing software business.

When the actual PE and Fair Ratio are this close, it signals the stock is valued just about right on this basis.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intuit Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand a stock's potential value. Let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your story about a company, connecting your assumptions about its future, such as expected revenue, earnings, and profit margins, with what you believe is a fair share price. Narratives aren't just numbers or forecasts; they capture your reasoning, linking a company's business developments and risks directly to a financial forecast, which then flows through to an actionable fair value.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives make this process both accessible and dynamic. Millions of investors use them to record and refine their investment views. The real power of Narratives is in helping you decide whether to buy or sell by comparing the fair value from your Narrative to the current share price. Plus, when new information arrives, such as earnings results or major news, Narratives update automatically so you always have a relevant, up-to-date perspective.

For example, on Intuit right now, some investors see a bright future driven by AI and expect the share price to reach $971, while others worry about international headwinds and assign a more cautious value down near $600. What matters most is which Narrative aligns with your understanding of the business.

Do you think there's more to the story for Intuit? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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