A Look at JFrog's Valuation Following Its Latest AI and Security Product Launches

If you have had your eye on JFrog (FROG) recently, this week’s news may have caught your attention. The company just rolled out a set of fresh offerings, ranging from the new AI Catalog and JFrog Fly to agent-based security tools and JFrog AppTrust, all aimed at transforming how enterprises handle secure software, compliance, and AI model management. With so much talk about software supply chain security and the pressure to automate compliance, these launches seem tailor-made to appeal to developer and enterprise customers facing new demands around trust and efficiency in the age of AI.

This flurry of product launches arrives during a sustained run for JFrog shares, which have climbed 77% in the past year and are up 63% year-to-date. While the pace of gains has picked up lately, growth has not always been smooth over the long haul. Three-year returns paint a very different picture compared to the last five years. Still, momentum appears to be building alongside healthy revenue growth, and JFrog’s push into AI-driven compliance and security positions it squarely in the path of emerging tech priorities. For investors, the question becomes whether these steps can deliver durable value, or if they simply keep JFrog in step with competitors racing down similar roads.

After such a stretch, is JFrog a bargain left behind by the market’s fixation on bigger names, or is all this future growth already reflected in the current price?

Most Popular Narrative: 6.7% Undervalued

The prevailing narrative suggests that JFrog’s shares are modestly undervalued, with analysts lifting their fair value estimate as optimism around new product growth and AI adoption builds.

Deepening partnerships and integrations with hyperscale cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) and leading developer platforms (e.g., Hugging Face, GitHub) are increasing JFrog's relevance in the software development ecosystem. This is driving co-sell opportunities, improved customer acquisition, and lower churn, which in turn support sustainable top-line growth and enhanced operating leverage.

Want to unravel the logic behind this upgraded price target? The secret sauce lies in a bold target for future profits and a sky-high valuation multiple, levels that are almost unheard of outside the hottest tech names. Can JFrog really meet these pivotal growth and margin milestones? See which assumptions make this undervaluation possible.

Result: Fair Value of $53.81 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, including the possibility that lengthening enterprise sales cycles or increased security competition could slow JFrog’s growth momentum and market share gains.

Find out about the key risks to this JFrog narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Already Pricing in the Hype?

While analysts call JFrog undervalued based on future growth and margin improvements, a look at its sales ratio compared to the industry standards paints a pricier picture. Investors may be paying too much for momentum.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding JFrog to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own JFrog Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can shape your own view in just a few minutes with our tools. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your JFrog research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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