Why Did Amplitude (AMPL) Jump After Its Latest Update?

Amplitude (AMPL) is back in focus after its second quarter 2026 report showed higher sales alongside a wider net loss, followed by fresh revenue guidance that set updated expectations for the rest of the year.

See our latest analysis for Amplitude.

The earnings release and fresh guidance appear to have reset expectations around Amplitude, with investors reacting quickly. The 90 day share price return of 97.25% and 30 day share price return of 32.79% suggest strong positive momentum, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 8.84% points to a more modest longer term outcome.

If Amplitude’s recent move has you thinking about where else growth stories could emerge, this is a good moment to scan 33 AI small caps.

For Amplitude, the question now is whether the sharp move reflects growing conviction in its AI analytics business or a swing in sentiment around higher sales alongside continued losses. The valuation picture is the next piece to examine.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.3% Overvalued

Amplitude closed at $12.19 compared with a most-followed narrative fair value of $11.36. This frames the recent share price surge as slightly ahead of that fair value line.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $11.36 for Amplitude based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.5.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this fair value sits below the current price? The narrative leans heavily on projected revenue growth, improving margins, and a richer earnings multiple. The mix of those three ingredients is what really moves the model.

Result: Fair Value of $11.36 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Amplitude still faces real execution risk if AI products remain in closed beta for longer than expected and if customers adopt the broader platform more slowly than hoped.

Find out about the key risks to this Amplitude narrative.

Another View On Amplitude’s Valuation

The analyst narrative sees Amplitude as 7.3% overvalued at $12.19 relative to a fair value of $11.36. Our DCF model offers a very different perspective. It estimates fair value at $23.47, which implies the stock trades at a 48.1% discount. This raises an important question: which lens is more useful for a long-term view?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Amplitude for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution around Amplitude has you carefully considering the balance of risks and rewards, it may be useful to review the details for yourself. To weigh both sides properly, start with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Amplitude?

If Amplitude has sharpened your focus, now is the time to broaden your watchlist with other stocks that could fit your style and objectives.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning for companies that combine quality fundamentals with appealing valuations through the 51 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income toolkit by reviewing stocks that offer reliable payouts in the 9 dividend fortresses.
• Protect your downside by focusing on companies that our models rate as more resilient using the 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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