Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM)

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Alarm.com Holdings (NASDAQ:ALRM) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Alarm.com Holdings:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.061 = US$76m ÷ (US$1.4b - US$175m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

Thus, Alarm.com Holdings has an ROCE of 6.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return but it's around the Software industry average of 7.2%.

See our latest analysis for Alarm.com Holdings

In the above chart we have measured Alarm.com Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Alarm.com Holdings for free.

So How Is Alarm.com Holdings' ROCE Trending?

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Alarm.com Holdings doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 16% over the last five years. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

Our Take On Alarm.com Holdings' ROCE

To conclude, we've found that Alarm.com Holdings is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. Unsurprisingly then, the total return to shareholders over the last five years has been flat. In any case, the stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Alarm.com Holdings that we think you should be aware of.

While Alarm.com Holdings isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.