Results: Vipshop Holdings Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$19.25 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥113b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Vipshop Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥14.42 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Vipshop Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vipshop Holdings from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥118.9b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.1% to CN¥15.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥117.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.37 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 13% to US$21.18. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Vipshop Holdings analyst has a price target of US$25.01 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.13. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that Vipshop Holdings is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vipshop Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Vipshop Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Vipshop Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.