The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$40b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.45. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Home Depot. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, Home Depot's 37 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$163.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.66, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$163.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.61 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Home Depot

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$420, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Home Depot analyst has a price target of US$484 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$297. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Home Depot's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 4.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Home Depot.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$420, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Home Depot analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Home Depot is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.