The Home Depot, Inc.

NYSE:HD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$407.7b

Home Depot Valuation

Is HD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HD ($420) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($449.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HD is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HD?

Key metric: As HD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HD. This is calculated by dividing HD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.6x
EarningsUS$14.61b
Market CapUS$407.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average50.6x
LOW Lowe's Companies
21.9x5.9%US$149.8b
FND Floor & Decor Holdings
61.4x17.6%US$11.5b
TJX TJX Companies
28.1x7.4%US$135.1b
BWMX Betterware de MéxicoP.I. de
91x36.4%US$3.9b
HD Home Depot
28.6x6.9%US$407.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the peer average (50.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
1.9xn/aUS$13.59m
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000002xn/aUS$749.00
FTCH.Q Farfetch
n/an/aUS$395.00
HD 28.6xIndustry Avg. 17.2xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.6x
Fair PE Ratio23.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$420.00
US$428.01
+1.9%
10.3%US$475.00US$292.00n/a35
Nov ’25US$392.59
US$403.32
+2.7%
11.7%US$466.00US$282.00n/a35
Oct ’25US$409.05
US$387.74
-5.2%
9.9%US$455.00US$282.00n/a34
Sep ’25US$368.50
US$379.56
+3.0%
9.4%US$433.00US$282.00n/a33
Aug ’25US$358.58
US$382.83
+6.8%
8.6%US$426.00US$270.00n/a32
Jul ’25US$336.19
US$381.20
+13.4%
8.7%US$425.00US$265.00n/a31
Jun ’25US$334.87
US$380.76
+13.7%
8.7%US$425.00US$265.00n/a32
May ’25US$331.97
US$384.83
+15.9%
9.4%US$440.00US$263.00n/a33
Apr ’25US$368.03
US$383.77
+4.3%
9.5%US$440.00US$263.00n/a33
Mar ’25US$384.45
US$375.53
-2.3%
9.6%US$415.00US$263.00n/a33
Feb ’25US$360.07
US$350.08
-2.8%
10.5%US$415.00US$263.00n/a32
Jan ’25US$346.55
US$336.51
-2.9%
8.0%US$390.00US$263.00n/a33
Dec ’24US$319.62
US$330.50
+3.4%
6.7%US$375.00US$263.00n/a33
Nov ’24US$286.63
US$343.27
+19.8%
7.5%US$384.00US$263.00US$392.5932
Oct ’24US$302.16
US$347.86
+15.1%
7.2%US$384.00US$263.00US$409.0532
Sep ’24US$333.08
US$346.02
+3.9%
7.5%US$384.00US$263.00US$368.5031
Aug ’24US$332.07
US$320.86
-3.4%
8.5%US$370.00US$259.00US$358.5832
Jul ’24US$310.64
US$317.73
+2.3%
7.8%US$360.00US$259.00US$336.1932
Jun ’24US$288.39
US$313.94
+8.9%
7.6%US$360.00US$259.00US$334.8732
May ’24US$297.70
US$328.87
+10.5%
8.5%US$400.00US$264.00US$331.9731
Apr ’24US$295.12
US$330.43
+12.0%
8.7%US$400.00US$264.00US$368.0330
Mar ’24US$290.79
US$329.87
+13.4%
8.6%US$400.00US$264.00US$384.4531
Feb ’24US$328.09
US$345.33
+5.3%
11.5%US$470.00US$258.00US$360.0730
Jan ’24US$315.86
US$344.43
+9.0%
11.5%US$470.00US$258.00US$346.5530
Dec ’23US$327.07
US$346.63
+6.0%
11.6%US$470.00US$258.00US$319.6230
Nov ’23US$296.06
US$355.13
+20.0%
11.3%US$470.00US$267.00US$286.6331

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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