The Home Depot, Inc.

NYSE:HD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$393.5b

Home Depot Valuation

Is HD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HD ($396.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($431.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HD is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HD?

Key metric: As HD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HD. This is calculated by dividing HD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.9x
EarningsUS$14.61b
Market CapUS$393.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.6x
LOW Lowe's Companies
20.7x5.9%US$141.3b
FND Floor & Decor Holdings
56.1x17.5%US$11.0b
TJX TJX Companies
28.5x7.5%US$138.8b
BWMX Betterware de MéxicoP.I. de
9.3x36.4%US$406.3m
HD Home Depot
26.9x6.9%US$393.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (28.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
1.9xn/aUS$13.26m
SSOK Sunstock
1xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.1xn/aUS$168.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000002xn/aUS$749.00
HD 26.9xIndustry Avg. 16.4xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.9x
Fair PE Ratio23.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$396.14
US$431.41
+8.9%
10.5%US$500.00US$292.00n/a35
Dec ’25US$429.13
US$428.58
-0.1%
10.3%US$475.00US$292.00n/a35
Nov ’25US$392.59
US$403.32
+2.7%
11.7%US$466.00US$282.00n/a35
Oct ’25US$409.05
US$387.74
-5.2%
9.9%US$455.00US$282.00n/a34
Sep ’25US$368.50
US$379.56
+3.0%
9.4%US$433.00US$282.00n/a33
Aug ’25US$358.58
US$382.83
+6.8%
8.6%US$426.00US$270.00n/a32
Jul ’25US$336.19
US$381.20
+13.4%
8.7%US$425.00US$265.00n/a31
Jun ’25US$334.87
US$380.76
+13.7%
8.7%US$425.00US$265.00n/a32
May ’25US$331.97
US$384.83
+15.9%
9.4%US$440.00US$263.00n/a33
Apr ’25US$368.03
US$383.77
+4.3%
9.5%US$440.00US$263.00n/a33
Mar ’25US$384.45
US$375.53
-2.3%
9.6%US$415.00US$263.00n/a33
Feb ’25US$360.07
US$350.08
-2.8%
10.5%US$415.00US$263.00n/a32
Jan ’25US$346.55
US$336.51
-2.9%
8.0%US$390.00US$263.00n/a33
Dec ’24US$319.62
US$330.50
+3.4%
6.7%US$375.00US$263.00US$429.1333
Nov ’24US$286.63
US$343.27
+19.8%
7.5%US$384.00US$263.00US$392.5932
Oct ’24US$302.16
US$347.86
+15.1%
7.2%US$384.00US$263.00US$409.0532
Sep ’24US$333.08
US$346.02
+3.9%
7.5%US$384.00US$263.00US$368.5031
Aug ’24US$332.07
US$320.86
-3.4%
8.5%US$370.00US$259.00US$358.5832
Jul ’24US$310.64
US$317.73
+2.3%
7.8%US$360.00US$259.00US$336.1932
Jun ’24US$288.39
US$313.94
+8.9%
7.6%US$360.00US$259.00US$334.8732
May ’24US$297.70
US$328.87
+10.5%
8.5%US$400.00US$264.00US$331.9731
Apr ’24US$295.12
US$330.43
+12.0%
8.7%US$400.00US$264.00US$368.0330
Mar ’24US$290.79
US$329.87
+13.4%
8.6%US$400.00US$264.00US$384.4531
Feb ’24US$328.09
US$345.33
+5.3%
11.5%US$470.00US$258.00US$360.0730
Jan ’24US$315.86
US$344.43
+9.0%
11.5%US$470.00US$258.00US$346.5530
Dec ’23US$327.07
US$346.63
+6.0%
11.6%US$470.00US$258.00US$319.6230

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 00:37
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/10/27
Annual Earnings2024/01/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Home Depot, Inc. is covered by 76 analysts. 37 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher GrajaArgus Research Company
Peter BenedictBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research