Alibaba Group Holding Limited

NYSE:BABA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$196.9b

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is BABA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BABA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BABA ($86.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($170.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BABA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BABA?

Key metric: As BABA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BABA. This is calculated by dividing BABA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BABA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.6x
EarningsCN¥85.85b
Market CapCN¥1.43t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BABA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.2x
MELI MercadoLibre
72.1x27.9%US$103.7b
JD JD.com
11.2x8.4%US$53.9b
PDD PDD Holdings
9.2x14.1%US$137.2b
CPNG Coupang
44.4x29.7%US$45.8b
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
16.6x15.0%US$196.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (34.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BABA 16.6xIndustry Avg. 19.8xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BABA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BABA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio27.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BABA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$86.59
US$120.43
+39.1%
13.1%US$145.80US$84.75n/a43
Nov ’25US$97.58
US$120.31
+23.3%
13.5%US$148.11US$86.07n/a44
Oct ’25US$112.74
US$109.72
-2.7%
13.1%US$135.94US$80.08n/a44
Sep ’25US$83.34
US$108.18
+29.8%
12.2%US$131.43US$80.58n/a44
Aug ’25US$77.98
US$105.26
+35.0%
13.1%US$134.83US$80.10n/a43
Jul ’25US$72.18
US$105.48
+46.1%
13.3%US$134.53US$79.62n/a42
Jun ’25US$78.34
US$105.66
+34.9%
13.3%US$134.95US$79.86n/a42
May ’25US$75.51
US$104.94
+39.0%
13.8%US$133.43US$79.97n/a43
Apr ’25US$73.37
US$106.19
+44.7%
14.3%US$135.75US$79.63n/a42
Mar ’25US$74.62
US$108.21
+45.0%
15.7%US$147.62US$79.97n/a43
Feb ’25US$72.46
US$114.36
+57.8%
15.9%US$149.45US$81.60n/a43
Jan ’25US$77.51
US$125.05
+61.3%
16.7%US$160.29US$82.08n/a43
Dec ’24US$73.99
US$127.15
+71.9%
15.2%US$160.28US$88.26n/a43
Nov ’24US$82.48
US$138.14
+67.5%
13.7%US$186.94US$98.70US$97.5843
Oct ’24US$86.74
US$140.31
+61.8%
13.3%US$184.86US$98.93US$112.7443
Sep ’24US$95.01
US$141.37
+48.8%
13.3%US$185.93US$99.50US$83.3444
Aug ’24US$100.10
US$139.06
+38.9%
14.0%US$183.42US$93.03US$77.9844
Jul ’24US$83.35
US$137.59
+65.1%
14.4%US$179.32US$91.73US$72.1844
Jun ’24US$83.00
US$140.48
+69.3%
12.7%US$179.51US$96.40US$78.3444
May ’24US$84.16
US$145.67
+73.1%
13.6%US$219.19US$98.99US$75.5144
Apr ’24US$102.18
US$146.36
+43.2%
13.9%US$220.01US$99.59US$73.3743
Mar ’24US$89.95
US$146.59
+63.0%
15.4%US$221.24US$73.45US$74.6242
Feb ’24US$112.82
US$145.78
+29.2%
17.2%US$220.66US$74.69US$72.4642
Jan ’24US$88.09
US$138.50
+57.2%
20.1%US$224.09US$72.47US$77.5142
Dec ’23US$85.94
US$133.99
+55.9%
20.0%US$216.42US$69.99US$73.9942
Nov ’23US$65.86
US$133.99
+103.4%
20.3%US$214.96US$69.09US$82.4841

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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