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AutoZone's (NYSE:AZO) investors will be pleased with their splendid 244% return over the last five years
It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE:AZO) share price down 13% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. In fact, the share price is 244% higher today. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for AutoZone
SWOT Analysis for AutoZone
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over half a decade, AutoZone managed to grow its earnings per share at 22% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 28% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that AutoZone has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that AutoZone has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 28% per year, is even more impressive. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand AutoZone better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for AutoZone (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:AZO
AutoZone
AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil.
Limited growth with questionable track record.
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