We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Advance Auto Parts Valuation

Is AAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AAP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.6x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.6x
PAG Penske Automotive Group
6.9x-1.5%US$9.6b
AN AutoNation
4.5x-11.0%US$6.6b
KMX CarMax
20.9x23.3%US$12.0b
LAD Lithia Motors
6x7.1%US$7.7b
AAP Advance Auto Parts
18.7x12.6%US$8.9b


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.6%
n/an/an/a


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.7x
Fair PE Ratio13.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$151.47
US$168.58
+11.3%
13.3%US$210.00US$120.00n/a19
Feb ’24US$156.84
US$168.58
+7.5%
13.3%US$210.00US$120.00n/a19
Jan ’24US$147.03
US$173.16
+17.8%
12.9%US$219.00US$120.00n/a19
Dec ’23US$151.30
US$176.21
+16.5%
13.7%US$219.00US$120.00n/a19
Nov ’23US$189.28
US$206.80
+9.3%
11.4%US$252.00US$132.00n/a20
Oct ’23US$156.34
US$208.90
+33.6%
11.5%US$252.00US$132.00n/a20
Sep ’23US$172.15
US$212.10
+23.2%
12.2%US$252.00US$132.00n/a20
Aug ’23US$195.99
US$222.80
+13.7%
11.6%US$259.00US$142.00n/a20
Jul ’23US$173.64
US$223.05
+28.5%
11.4%US$259.00US$142.00n/a20
Jun ’23US$187.66
US$226.37
+20.6%
11.3%US$259.00US$142.00n/a19
May ’23US$199.63
US$257.32
+28.9%
11.4%US$294.00US$159.00n/a19
Apr ’23US$207.48
US$257.84
+24.3%
11.5%US$294.00US$159.00n/a19
Mar ’23US$201.17
US$256.89
+27.7%
11.7%US$294.00US$159.00n/a19
Feb ’23US$234.80
US$254.16
+8.2%
11.5%US$290.00US$160.00US$156.8419
Jan ’23US$239.88
US$252.94
+5.4%
13.4%US$290.00US$142.00US$147.0317
Dec ’22US$218.23
US$252.06
+15.5%
13.5%US$290.00US$142.00US$151.3017
Nov ’22US$225.11
US$235.44
+4.6%
12.2%US$276.00US$138.00US$189.2818
Oct ’22US$208.00
US$232.44
+11.8%
11.5%US$256.00US$138.00US$156.3418
Sep ’22US$201.88
US$232.00
+14.9%
11.7%US$256.00US$138.00US$172.1518
Aug ’22US$212.06
US$220.65
+4.0%
11.2%US$250.00US$136.00US$195.9917
Jul ’22US$208.94
US$219.37
+5.0%
10.6%US$250.00US$136.00US$173.6419
Jun ’22US$194.65
US$215.22
+10.6%
10.3%US$235.00US$135.00US$187.6618
May ’22US$200.16
US$209.50
+4.7%
11.7%US$235.00US$135.00US$199.6318
Apr ’22US$185.96
US$184.17
-1.0%
9.5%US$210.00US$134.00US$207.4818
Mar ’22US$162.66
US$179.28
+10.2%
8.7%US$202.00US$134.00US$201.1718
Feb ’22US$150.97
US$176.94
+17.2%
10.2%US$202.00US$128.00US$234.8018


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