Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

NYSE:AAP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.8b

Advance Auto Parts Valuation

Is AAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$36.32
Fair Value
31.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
21
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AAP ($47.87) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($36.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAP?

Key metric: As AAP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAP. This is calculated by dividing AAP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio60.3x
EarningsUS$47.15m
Market CapUS$2.84b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.3x
SAH Sonic Automotive
11.6x10.9%US$2.5b
AN AutoNation
10.9x8.2%US$7.5b
ABG Asbury Automotive Group
13.8x15.9%US$5.9b
GPI Group 1 Automotive
12.8x9.6%US$6.2b
AAP Advance Auto Parts
60.3x41.7%US$2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.3x) compared to the peer average (12.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.2xn/aUS$15.43m
SSOK Sunstock
0.7xn/aUS$511.15k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.1xn/aUS$192.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$24.00
No more companies available in this PE range
AAP 60.3xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.3x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio60.3x
Fair PE Ratio25.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (60.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$47.87
US$44.33
-7.4%
22.1%US$65.00US$17.00n/a21
Feb ’26US$48.50
US$44.10
-9.1%
22.1%US$65.00US$17.00n/a21
Jan ’26US$47.29
US$44.05
-6.9%
24.2%US$66.00US$17.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$41.35
US$44.00
+6.4%
24.8%US$66.00US$17.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$36.25
US$49.10
+35.4%
29.1%US$85.00US$17.00n/a20
Oct ’25US$37.78
US$49.25
+30.4%
30.0%US$85.00US$17.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$45.31
US$50.65
+11.8%
26.0%US$85.00US$17.00n/a20
Aug ’25US$62.13
US$63.05
+1.5%
25.0%US$100.00US$21.00n/a20
Jul ’25US$59.71
US$63.35
+6.1%
25.0%US$100.00US$21.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$70.64
US$63.53
-10.1%
25.7%US$100.00US$21.00n/a19
May ’25US$73.03
US$64.53
-11.6%
23.0%US$100.00US$35.00n/a20
Apr ’25US$85.43
US$64.03
-25.1%
23.6%US$100.00US$35.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$69.26
US$63.28
-8.6%
22.6%US$98.00US$35.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$69.24
US$56.74
-18.1%
25.1%US$98.00US$32.00US$48.5021
Jan ’25US$61.03
US$56.63
-7.2%
24.5%US$98.00US$32.00US$47.2920
Dec ’24US$54.09
US$57.22
+5.8%
25.0%US$98.00US$32.00US$41.3520
Nov ’24US$51.55
US$68.02
+31.9%
19.1%US$98.00US$42.00US$36.2520
Oct ’24US$55.93
US$72.12
+28.9%
14.3%US$98.00US$50.00US$37.7819
Sep ’24US$67.65
US$72.00
+6.4%
12.0%US$84.00US$50.00US$45.3117
Aug ’24US$73.72
US$75.06
+1.8%
12.7%US$85.00US$50.00US$62.1318
Jul ’24US$70.30
US$79.67
+13.3%
17.9%US$130.00US$57.00US$59.7118
Jun ’24US$68.03
US$85.79
+26.1%
33.0%US$191.00US$57.00US$70.6419
May ’24US$125.47
US$151.25
+20.5%
12.0%US$191.00US$105.00US$73.0320
Apr ’24US$121.61
US$155.25
+27.7%
13.1%US$201.00US$105.00US$85.4320
Mar ’24US$138.82
US$157.74
+13.6%
13.1%US$201.00US$105.00US$69.2619
Feb ’24US$156.84
US$168.58
+7.5%
13.3%US$210.00US$120.00US$69.2419
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
US$44.33
Fair Value
8.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
21
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 08:56
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/10/05
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is covered by 54 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Bret JordanAvondale Partners
Craig KennisonBaird