Advance Auto Parts Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Advance Auto Parts's revenue is forecast to decline at 6% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 42.3% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 41.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.3% in 3 years.
Key information
42.3%
Earnings growth rate
41.1%
EPS growth rate
| Specialty Retail earnings growth | 9.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | -6.0% |
| Future return on equity | 9.3% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 27 Dec 2024 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?
Dec 26
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce
Dec 10Advance Auto Parts: Undervalued Turnaround Stock With Major Margin Expansion Ahead
Nov 17Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Nov 06Advance Auto Parts: Recovery Appears Elusive
Oct 05Advance Auto Parts: A Decent Sale Cannot Outweigh Competitive Concerns
Sep 23Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25
Sep 23Returns On Capital At Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Paint A Concerning Picture
Sep 20Advance Auto Parts: Valuation To Trade At A Discount To Peers
Sep 04Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) 27% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk
Aug 30Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.25
Aug 25Advance Auto Parts: Q2 Earnings Disappoint, Turnaround Isn't Gaining Traction
Aug 22A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)
Aug 11Advance Auto Parts: Value Over Everything
Aug 02Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s (NYSE:AAP) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
Jul 15Here's Why Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Jul 01Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.25
Jun 18Is It Time To Consider Buying Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)?
Jun 15Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.25
Jun 01Advance Auto Parts: A Messy Q1 Adds To Credibility Challenges
May 31Third Point - Advance Auto Parts: Worldpac Sale A Near-Term Catalyst To Unlock Significant Value
May 02Advance Auto Parts: Can The New Management Deliver?
Apr 13Advance Auto Parts' Q4 Earnings: A First Step To Get Back On Track
Feb 29Advanced Auto Parts: Broken Down But Repairs Being Made
Dec 17Advance Auto Parts: The New Normal
Nov 27At US$55.94, Is Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Worth Looking At Closely?
Nov 14Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
Nov 01Advance Auto Parts: Cheap For A Reason And An Uncertain Future
Oct 31Advance Auto Parts: Another Retailer Stuck Between 'A Rock And A Hard Place'
Oct 17Credit Downgrade Could Worsen Advance Auto Parts' Cash Flow Problem
Sep 14Be Wary Of Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) And Its Returns On Capital
Sep 04Advance Auto Parts: Attractive Valuation After Losing Half Its Value In 2023
Aug 09Advance Auto Parts: Its Mediocrity Is Unsustainable
Jul 20Advance Auto Parts: A Quick Recovery Won't Be Easy
Jul 13Advance Auto Parts: Better Safe Than Sorry
Jul 05There Are Reasons To Feel Uneasy About Advance Auto Parts' (NYSE:AAP) Returns On Capital
Jun 01Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2027 | 8,699 | 270 | 143 | 551 | 5 |
| 12/31/2026 | 8,602 | 185 | 159 | 447 | 18 |
| 12/31/2025 | 8,493 | 93 | 5 | 447 | 21 |
| 12/31/2024 | 9,024 | -27 | 66 | 588 | 19 |
| 10/5/2024 | 11,191 | 47 | 219 | 416 | N/A |
| 7/13/2024 | 11,261 | -2 | 352 | 542 | N/A |
| 4/20/2024 | 11,276 | 21 | 471 | 673 | N/A |
| 12/30/2023 | 11,288 | 30 | 45 | 287 | N/A |
| 10/7/2023 | 9,668 | 83 | 16 | 282 | N/A |
| 7/15/2023 | 10,092 | 273 | -99 | 261 | N/A |
| 4/22/2023 | 11,198 | 373 | 8 | 409 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 11,155 | 464 | 311 | 737 | N/A |
| 10/8/2022 | 11,078 | 468 | 238 | 670 | N/A |
| 7/16/2022 | 11,058 | 522 | 273 | 645 | N/A |
| 4/23/2022 | 11,042 | 570 | 394 | 727 | N/A |
| 1/1/2022 | 10,998 | 597 | 817 | 1,107 | N/A |
| 10/9/2021 | 10,966 | 646 | 819 | 1,085 | N/A |
| 7/17/2021 | 10,887 | 624 | 1,041 | 1,298 | N/A |
| 4/24/2021 | 10,739 | 635 | 1,033 | 1,289 | N/A |
| 1/2/2021 | 10,106 | 493 | 702 | 970 | N/A |
| 10/3/2020 | 9,854 | 477 | 472 | 968 | N/A |
| 7/11/2020 | 9,624 | 453 | 322 | 823 | N/A |
| 4/18/2020 | 9,455 | 388 | 180 | 673 | N/A |
| 12/28/2019 | 9,709 | 487 | 395 | 867 | N/A |
| 10/5/2019 | 9,701 | 444 | 580 | 838 | N/A |
| 7/13/2019 | 9,664 | 437 | 616 | 859 | N/A |
| 4/20/2019 | 9,659 | 430 | 641 | 862 | N/A |
| 12/29/2018 | 9,581 | 424 | 617 | 811 | N/A |
| 10/6/2018 | 9,512 | 555 | 747 | 881 | N/A |
| 7/14/2018 | 9,420 | 535 | N/A | 777 | N/A |
| 4/21/2018 | 9,357 | 504 | N/A | 720 | N/A |
| 12/30/2017 | 9,374 | 476 | N/A | 601 | N/A |
| 10/7/2017 | 9,420 | 353 | N/A | 497 | N/A |
| 7/15/2017 | 9,486 | 371 | N/A | 582 | N/A |
| 4/22/2017 | 9,479 | 409 | N/A | 470 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 9,568 | 460 | N/A | 523 | N/A |
| 10/8/2016 | 9,518 | 452 | N/A | 597 | N/A |
| 7/16/2016 | 9,565 | 458 | N/A | 567 | N/A |
| 4/23/2016 | 9,679 | 483 | N/A | 676 | N/A |
| 1/2/2016 | 9,737 | 473 | N/A | 703 | N/A |
| 10/10/2015 | 9,941 | 501 | N/A | 689 | N/A |
| 7/18/2015 | 9,935 | 503 | N/A | 719 | N/A |
| 4/25/2015 | 9,913 | 493 | N/A | 730 | N/A |
| 1/3/2015 | 9,844 | 492 | N/A | 709 | N/A |
| 10/4/2014 | 9,015 | 457 | N/A | 687 | N/A |
| 7/12/2014 | 8,246 | 439 | N/A | 556 | N/A |
| 4/19/2014 | 7,448 | 417 | N/A | 491 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AAP's forecast earnings growth (42.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).
Earnings vs Market: AAP's earnings (42.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.9% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AAP's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AAP's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AAP's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AAP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2025/01/05 03:43 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2025/01/03 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/10/05 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. is covered by 55 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Bret Jordan | Avondale Partners |
| Craig Kennison | Baird |