What Is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULTA) Share Price Doing?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Ulta Beauty’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Ulta Beauty

Is Ulta Beauty Still Cheap?

According to my valuation model, Ulta Beauty seems to be fairly priced at around 6.9% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Ulta Beauty today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $472.93, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Ulta Beauty’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Ulta Beauty?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Ulta Beauty, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 7.8%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in ULTA’s future outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ULTA, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Ulta Beauty at this point in time. For example - Ulta Beauty has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Ulta Beauty, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.