Analysts Are Updating Their Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLLI) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$578m arriving 3.0% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.79, 2.7% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$2.29b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$3.29, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$102. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings analyst has a price target of US$115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$64.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$102, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.