JD.com, Inc. Just Recorded A 69% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders of JD.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$29.29 following its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥291b were what the analysts expected, JD.com surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of CN¥8.19 per share, an impressive 69% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for JD.com

Following the latest results, JD.com's 43 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥1.13t in 2024. This would be an okay 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥21.64, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.14t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥19.52 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the substantial gain in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$40.93, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on JD.com, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.81 and the most bearish at US$28.03 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that JD.com's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than JD.com.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards JD.com following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$40.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple JD.com analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with JD.com .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.