Stock Analysis

Further weakness as Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) drops 10% this week, taking five-year losses to 86%

NasdaqGS:GRPN
Source: Shutterstock

Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Spare a thought for those who held Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) for five whole years - as the share price tanked 86%. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 49%. On top of that, the share price is down 10% in the last week. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

After losing 10% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

See our latest analysis for Groupon

Groupon isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Over half a decade Groupon reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 24% for each year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 13% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Of course, the poor performance could mean the market has been too severe selling down. That can happen.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:GRPN Earnings and Revenue Growth August 19th 2022

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Groupon

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Groupon shareholders are down 49% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 7.1%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Groupon better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Groupon you should know about.

Groupon is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.