Agree Realty (ADC): Assessing Valuation Following Insider Buying and Capital Raise Ahead of Earnings

Agree Realty has captured interest after a director bought a sizable amount of shares and the company completed major capital raises, which has boosted liquidity. Updated investment and AFFO guidance now set the tone ahead of its next earnings report.

See our latest analysis for Agree Realty.

Agree Realty’s share price has made a modest ascent recently, with a 1.93% total shareholder return over the last year and a 4.23% year-to-date share price return. Investors appear increasingly optimistic given the company’s robust capital raises, director share purchases, and upwardly revised guidance. This signals some renewed momentum, while the long-term track record of steady gains strengthens the case for continued attention.

If you’re watching insider activity as a sign of growing confidence, it might be time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares still trading below most analyst targets despite improved liquidity and steady growth, the question remains: is Agree Realty stock truly undervalued at current levels, or has the market already priced in its future potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

Agree Realty closed at $72.69, while the most popular narrative assigns a fair value over $81. This difference reflects sizable optimism in forward-looking estimates that underpin the analysts’ consensus.

Advanced in-house asset and lease management, enhanced by technology and AI-driven efficiencies, is streamlining operations, reducing legal and administrative costs, and supporting scalable margin improvement as the platform grows.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what's fueling this premium valuation? The secret? Analysts have mapped out an ambitious blend of rising profits, faster growth, and a bold margin comeback. The narrative hints there is a powerful quantitative logic driving these projections. Find out which financial scenario could make consensus right.

Result: Fair Value of $81.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising acquisition volumes and heightened exposure to key tenants could put pressure on margins and challenge the sustainability of Agree Realty’s growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Agree Realty narrative.

Another View: Is Agree Realty Actually Overvalued?

Taking a look at the widely used price-to-earnings ratio provides a less optimistic perspective than the fair value implied by analyst forecasts. Agree Realty’s P/E sits at 45.1x, which is notably higher than both the US Retail REITs industry average of 25.2x and the peer average of 25.7x. Even the fair ratio, calculated at 36.9x, is well below ADC’s current multiple. This significant premium suggests the stock may carry more downside risk than the consensus price target indicates. Could the market be too optimistic about future growth?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Agree Realty Narrative

Feel like you have a different take or want to analyze the numbers yourself? Craft a personal outlook by building your own narrative in just a few minutes, and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Agree Realty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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