Agree Realty Corporation

NYSE:ADC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.2b

Agree Realty Valuation

Is ADC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADC ($70.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($140.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADC?

Key metric: As ADC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ADC. This is calculated by dividing ADC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ADC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio39.8x
EarningsUS$181.99m
Market CapUS$7.25b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.5x
SRC Spirit Realty Capital
24.1x-8.7%US$6.0b
NNN NNN REIT
19.2x2.4%US$7.6b
BRX Brixmor Property Group
25.2x-1.1%US$8.3b
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust
33.4x2.3%US$9.6b
ADC Agree Realty
39.8x9.7%US$7.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Retail REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SITC SITE Centers
1.1x-118.9%US$810.57m
RVIC Retail Value
0.2xn/aUS$5.72m
No more companies available in this PE range
ADC 39.8xIndustry Avg. 34.2xNo. of Companies4PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the US Retail REITs industry average (34.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio39.8x
Fair PE Ratio37.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ADC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$70.17
US$80.48
+14.7%
4.5%US$89.00US$75.00n/a20
Dec ’25US$76.80
US$79.47
+3.5%
4.7%US$89.00US$71.00n/a18
Nov ’25US$73.93
US$78.53
+6.2%
5.0%US$89.00US$71.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$75.27
US$75.53
+0.3%
6.5%US$84.00US$67.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$73.01
US$73.47
+0.6%
5.1%US$81.00US$67.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$70.79
US$68.25
-3.6%
5.8%US$77.00US$62.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$61.67
US$65.92
+6.9%
5.1%US$71.00US$60.00n/a18
Jun ’25US$60.76
US$65.50
+7.8%
4.9%US$71.00US$60.00n/a17
May ’25US$57.52
US$65.78
+14.4%
4.9%US$71.00US$60.00n/a16
Apr ’25US$57.07
US$66.28
+16.1%
5.1%US$71.00US$60.00n/a16
Mar ’25US$56.56
US$66.72
+18.0%
5.2%US$73.00US$61.00n/a16
Feb ’25US$61.21
US$68.13
+11.3%
5.4%US$76.00US$61.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$62.95
US$66.59
+5.8%
5.9%US$76.00US$61.00n/a14
Dec ’24US$60.11
US$66.02
+9.8%
6.1%US$76.00US$60.00US$76.8014
Nov ’24US$57.22
US$67.16
+17.4%
6.8%US$76.00US$58.00US$73.9314
Oct ’24US$55.24
US$73.46
+33.0%
5.3%US$78.00US$64.00US$75.2714
Sep ’24US$61.40
US$74.58
+21.5%
3.7%US$78.00US$67.00US$73.0113
Aug ’24US$64.65
US$76.12
+17.7%
3.7%US$81.00US$70.00US$70.7913
Jul ’24US$65.39
US$76.00
+16.2%
3.5%US$80.00US$70.00US$61.6713
Jun ’24US$64.25
US$76.88
+19.7%
4.2%US$81.00US$70.00US$60.7613
May ’24US$67.41
US$77.12
+14.4%
3.6%US$81.00US$73.00US$57.5213
Apr ’24US$68.61
US$77.73
+13.3%
4.3%US$85.00US$73.00US$57.0713
Mar ’24US$70.06
US$77.75
+11.0%
4.3%US$85.00US$73.00US$56.5614
Feb ’24US$74.38
US$77.38
+4.0%
3.9%US$82.00US$73.00US$61.2115
Jan ’24US$70.93
US$76.03
+7.2%
3.9%US$82.00US$71.00US$62.9515
Dec ’23US$70.20
US$75.97
+8.2%
5.2%US$84.00US$68.00US$60.1115

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:15
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Agree Realty Corporation is covered by 35 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Wesley GolladayBaird
Richard HightowerBarclays
Nathan CrossettBerenberg