Will Obesity Bet and TUKYSA Data Shift Pfizer’s (PFE) Post-COVID Growth Narrative?

• Pfizer Inc. recently entered an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma for YP05002, an oral GLP-1 receptor agonist in Phase 1 for chronic weight management, while also reporting new Phase 3 data for its HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer therapy TUKYSA as a first-line maintenance option.
• This combination of a potential oral obesity drug and stronger oncology data underscores Pfizer’s effort to rebuild and diversify its post-COVID growth engine ahead of key patent expirations.
• We’ll now examine how adding an early-stage oral GLP-1 asset for obesity may reshape Pfizer’s investment narrative around future growth resilience.

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Pfizer Investment Narrative Recap

To own Pfizer today, you need to be comfortable with a business in transition, using obesity, oncology and hematology assets to offset fading COVID revenue and looming patent expirations on drugs like Ibrance, Eliquis and Vyndaqel. The new TUKYSA data and YP05002 obesity deal support that pivot but do not remove the near term overhang from pricing and policy pressures or execution risk around replacing expiring revenue.

Among recent updates, the HER2CLIMB-05 Phase 3 results for TUKYSA look most connected to this story, because they speak directly to oncology as a key replacement growth pillar. A 36% reduction in progression or death in first line maintenance HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer, if eventually approved and adopted, could strengthen Pfizer’s oncology franchise at a time when investors are closely watching how effectively it can defend and expand high value cancer revenues.

Yet even with this progress, investors should be aware that pricing reforms and patent expirations could still...

Read the full narrative on Pfizer (it's free!)

Pfizer's narrative projects $59.6 billion revenue and $12.8 billion earnings by 2028. This implies revenue declining by 2.2% per year and an earnings increase of about $2.1 billion from $10.7 billion today.

Uncover how Pfizer's forecasts yield a $29.08 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were assuming Pfizer could reach about US$65.5 billion of revenue and US$15.1 billion of earnings by 2028, which is far more upbeat than the consensus view on pricing and patent risks; this latest obesity and oncology update may either support that optimistic path or force you to rethink how realistic those assumptions really are.

Explore 33 other fair value estimates on Pfizer - why the stock might be worth 7% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Pfizer Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Pfizer research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Pfizer research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Pfizer's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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