How New Three-Year INGREZZA Data at Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St
  • Neurocrine Biosciences recently presented new data from its KINECT-HD2 study at the 2025 MDS International Congress, showing that INGREZZA capsules provided sustained improvements in chorea severity and maintained a well-established safety profile in adults with Huntington’s disease over three years of treatment.
  • This positive long-term efficacy and safety data increases clinical confidence in INGREZZA’s role for Huntington’s disease and highlights Neurocrine’s advancing leadership in neuropsychiatric treatment options.
  • We'll explore how the new INGREZZA Huntington's disease data supports Neurocrine's investment case and future neuropsychiatry franchise growth initiatives.

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Neurocrine Biosciences Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Neurocrine Biosciences, I believe you must have conviction in the company's ability to expand its neuropsychiatry leadership through sustained, long-term growth from INGREZZA and emerging therapies. The recent positive long-term Huntington’s disease data supports ongoing adoption but is unlikely to materially change the near-term focus; the most important short-term catalyst remains robust uptake and access for INGREZZA, while pricing pressures in Medicare and commercial channels continue to pose the most pressing risk to margins and revenue stability.

Among recent developments, the appointment of Mike Sibley as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Neuropsychiatry franchise directly ties into INGREZZA's growth narrative. His 20 years of commercial experience and responsibility over sales and marketing initiatives may help strengthen positioning amid competitive threats and payer scrutiny, helping to drive franchise resilience as the company pursues key catalysts.

However, investors should be aware that, despite promising clinical milestones, pricing pressure and payer tightening could challenge even well-established product franchises like INGREZZA if...

Read the full narrative on Neurocrine Biosciences (it's free!)

Neurocrine Biosciences is projected to reach $3.8 billion in revenue and $976.5 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on an assumed annual revenue growth rate of 14.6% and an increase in earnings of $628.2 million from current earnings of $348.3 million.

Uncover how Neurocrine Biosciences' forecasts yield a $168.25 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NBIX Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

Seven individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community fall between US$119 and US$314 per share. Despite this wide range of outlooks, the persistent risk of payer scrutiny and pricing pressure could shape future revenue, so consider exploring multiple viewpoints before making a decision.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Neurocrine Biosciences - why the stock might be worth 15% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Neurocrine Biosciences Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Neurocrine Biosciences research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Neurocrine Biosciences research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Neurocrine Biosciences' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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