Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NBIX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.7b

Neurocrine Biosciences Valuation

Is NBIX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NBIX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NBIX ($135.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($453.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NBIX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NBIX?

Key metric: As NBIX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NBIX. This is calculated by dividing NBIX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NBIX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35.5x
EarningsUS$385.90m
Market CapUS$13.71b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NBIX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average41.7x
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics
93.3x43.0%US$11.4b
UTHR United Therapeutics
14.5x9.7%US$16.1b
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical
38.8x27.9%US$12.5b
EXEL Exelixis
20.4x15.8%US$9.5b
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences
35.5x30.4%US$13.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NBIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the peer average (41.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NBIX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

12 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROIV Roivant Sciences
1.8x-58.7%US$8.42b
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals
3x-57.3%US$2.02b
INBX Inhibrx Biosciences
0.1xn/aUS$211.35m
DTIL Precision BioSciences
3.2x-41.0%US$36.21m
NBIX 35.5xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies12PE020406080100+
12 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NBIX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NBIX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.5x
Fair PE Ratio35.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NBIX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NBIX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$135.42
US$165.04
+21.9%
10.6%US$192.00US$121.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$126.75
US$163.46
+29.0%
10.3%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Nov ’25US$122.21
US$162.86
+33.3%
10.5%US$192.00US$121.00n/a26
Oct ’25US$114.15
US$168.72
+47.8%
10.5%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$127.06
US$169.52
+33.4%
10.5%US$204.00US$128.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$153.15
US$167.15
+9.1%
10.3%US$216.00US$131.00n/a26
Jul ’25US$140.11
US$160.53
+14.6%
11.4%US$216.00US$111.00n/a27
Jun ’25US$135.41
US$160.38
+18.4%
11.7%US$216.00US$111.00n/a26
May ’25US$143.03
US$155.09
+8.4%
10.2%US$200.00US$111.00n/a28
Apr ’25US$141.38
US$151.79
+7.4%
10.9%US$200.00US$106.00n/a28
Mar ’25US$131.30
US$149.68
+14.0%
8.7%US$170.00US$106.00n/a28
Feb ’25US$142.45
US$145.70
+2.3%
11.0%US$170.00US$100.00n/a27
Jan ’25US$131.76
US$137.73
+4.5%
10.8%US$170.00US$100.00n/a27
Dec ’24US$117.12
US$135.27
+15.5%
12.6%US$170.00US$100.00US$126.7525
Nov ’24US$111.54
US$136.64
+22.5%
11.7%US$170.00US$100.00US$122.2125
Oct ’24US$112.50
US$129.76
+15.3%
11.5%US$160.00US$95.00US$114.1524
Sep ’24US$110.63
US$126.21
+14.1%
11.2%US$154.00US$95.00US$127.0624
Aug ’24US$103.44
US$125.17
+21.0%
10.7%US$150.00US$95.00US$153.1524
Jul ’24US$94.30
US$124.16
+31.7%
10.8%US$150.00US$91.00US$140.1126
Jun ’24US$91.19
US$124.85
+36.9%
11.3%US$150.00US$91.00US$135.4126
May ’24US$104.02
US$126.53
+21.6%
11.1%US$150.00US$91.00US$143.0325
Apr ’24US$101.22
US$127.34
+25.8%
10.9%US$150.00US$93.00US$141.3825
Mar ’24US$101.25
US$127.02
+25.5%
10.9%US$150.00US$93.00US$131.3025
Feb ’24US$110.22
US$129.25
+17.3%
11.0%US$165.37US$101.00US$142.4525
Jan ’24US$119.44
US$128.97
+8.0%
11.0%US$162.13US$101.00US$131.7625
Dec ’23US$126.31
US$128.97
+2.1%
11.0%US$162.13US$101.00US$117.1225

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 08:12
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is covered by 50 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Martha FreitagArgus Research Company
Brian SkorneyBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research