Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) After Its Latest Results

Shareholders in Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 29% to US$86.58 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 79% better than analyst models expected, at US$241mwhile statutory losses per share were US$3.33, in line with forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Moderna

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 23 analysts covering Moderna, is for revenues of US$3.26b in 2024. This implies a stressful 36% reduction in Moderna's revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 40% to US$9.14. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$4.16b and US$6.99 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The consensus price target fell 9.4% to US$132, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Moderna analyst has a price target of US$310 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$56.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 58% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 32% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Moderna is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Moderna's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Moderna going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Moderna you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com