Industry Analysts Just Made A Captivating Upgrade To Their Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) Revenue Forecasts

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. The revenue forecast for this year has experienced a facelift, with analysts now much more optimistic on its sales pipeline.

After this upgrade, Mirum Pharmaceuticals' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$141m in 2023. This would be a sizeable 83% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 20% to US$2.86. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$122m and losses of US$2.91 per share in 2023. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts upgrading this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

Check out our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals

The consensus price target held steady at US$51.38 despite the upgrade to revenue forecasts and ongoing losses. Analysts seem to think the business is otherwise performing roughly in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Mirum Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$81.00 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 83% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 119% over the past three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Mirum Pharmaceuticals' prospects. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Mirum Pharmaceuticals.

That's a pretty serious upgrade, but shareholders might be even more pleased to know that forecasts expect Mirum Pharmaceuticals to be able to reach break-even within the next few years. You can learn more about these forecasts, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.