Mirum Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:MIRM) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MIRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MIRM ($19.98) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($264.8)

MIRM fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

MIRM Stock Overview

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapies for debilitating rare and orphan diseases.

Rewards

Trading at 92.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 79.76% per year

Risk Analysis

Has less than 1 year of cash runway

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Competitors

Vanda Pharmaceuticals

NasdaqGM:VNDA

US$632.1m

Geron

NasdaqGS:GERN

US$630.3m

Sangamo Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:SGMO

US$627.8m

Organogenesis Holdings

NasdaqCM:ORGO

US$645.7m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Mirum Pharmaceuticals
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$19.98
52 Week High	US$28.65
52 Week Low	US$12.82
Beta	1.24
1 Month Change	-20.81%
3 Month Change	-16.99%
1 Year Change	19.28%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	51.25%

Recent News & Updates

May 27

Mirum Pharmaceuticals: Post-Approval Execution Looks Excellent

Mirum's maralixibat was approved in September. The company looks like it is executing very well. I am waiting for dips to buy back in.

Shareholder Returns

	MIRM	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	6.8%	0.2%	-2.2%
1Y	19.3%	-25.1%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: MIRM exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -25.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MIRM exceeded the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MIRM's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MIRM volatility
MIRM Average Weekly Movement	9.7%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	13.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: MIRM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MIRM's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2018	144	Chris Peetz	https://www.mirumpharma.com

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel therapies for debilitating rare and orphan diseases. The company’s lead product candidate is LIVMARLI, an investigational oral drug for the treatment of progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis disease, as well as for the treatment of Alagille syndrome and biliary atresia disease. It also develops Volixibat drug for treatment of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy and primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Summary

How do Mirum Pharmaceuticals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MIRM fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$636.19m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$70.06m
Revenue (TTM)	US$32.03m

19.9x

P/S Ratio

-9.1x

P/E Ratio

Is MIRM overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MIRM income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$32.03m
Cost of Revenue	US$4.33m
Gross Profit	US$27.70m
Other Expenses	US$97.77m
Earnings	-US$70.06m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-2.20
Gross Margin	86.49%
Net Profit Margin	-218.74%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did MIRM perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MIRM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MIRM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MIRM. This is calculated by dividing MIRM's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MIRM's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$636.19m

MIRM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	15.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-3.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MIRM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

MIRM PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for MIRM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	116.7x
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals	2.4x	1.0%	US$632.1m
GERN Geron	457.5x	66.9%	US$630.3m
SGMO Sangamo Therapeutics	5.6x	32.5%	US$627.8m
ORGO Organogenesis Holdings	1.4x	9.5%	US$645.7m
MIRM Mirum Pharmaceuticals	19.9x	48.5%	US$636.2m

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MIRM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.9x) compared to the peer average (116.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MIRM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MIRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.9x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (13.2x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MIRM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MIRM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	19.9x
Fair PS Ratio	13.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MIRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MIRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MIRM ($19.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($264.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MIRM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MIRM's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Mirum Pharmaceuticals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

79.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MIRM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MIRM is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MIRM is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MIRM's revenue (48.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MIRM's revenue (48.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MIRM is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Past Performance

How has Mirum Pharmaceuticals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-31.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MIRM is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: MIRM is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MIRM is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 31.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare MIRM's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: MIRM is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (98.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: MIRM has a negative Return on Equity (-64.32%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Mirum Pharmaceuticals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MIRM's short term assets ($155.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($34.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: MIRM's short term assets ($155.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($134.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MIRM is debt free.

Reducing Debt: MIRM has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: MIRM has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if MIRM has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Mirum Pharmaceuticals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate MIRM's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate MIRM's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MIRM's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if MIRM's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as MIRM has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Chris Peetz (43 yo)

3.58yrs

Tenure

US$4,130,831

Compensation

Mr. Christopher Peetz, also known as Chris, serves as Entrepreneur-in-Residence at Frazier Management, L.L.C since May 30, 2017. He joined Frazier on May 30, 2017. He is on the Frazier Life Sciences team (...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Chris's total compensation ($USD4.13M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.03M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Chris's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MIRM's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MIRM's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.3%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31