Analysts Have Just Cut Their Liquidia Corporation (NASDAQ:LQDA) Revenue Estimates By 11%

Market forces rained on the parade of Liquidia Corporation (NASDAQ:LQDA) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

After this downgrade, Liquidia's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$44m in 2025. This would be a sizeable 211% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.57 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$49m and losses of US$1.48 per share in 2025. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Liquidia

The consensus price target lifted 5.7% to US$26.78, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Liquidia's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 211% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Liquidia is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with analysts apparently feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Liquidia after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Liquidia analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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