Krystal Biotech, Inc. (NASDAQ:KRYS) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a good week for Krystal Biotech, Inc. (NASDAQ:KRYS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.3% to US$183. Krystal Biotech reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$84m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.91, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Krystal Biotech

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Krystal Biotech are now predicting revenues of US$461.8m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 91% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 224% to US$5.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$477.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.78 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$208, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Krystal Biotech's market value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Krystal Biotech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$221 and the most bearish at US$195 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Krystal Biotech is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Krystal Biotech's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 68% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 99% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Krystal Biotech is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Krystal Biotech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Krystal Biotech .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.