Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) After Its Latest Results

Shareholders might have noticed that Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to US$11.47 in the past week. Revenues fell -41% short of what the analysts had expected, coming in at US$28m. Statutory losses were somewhat milder than expected, coming in with a loss of US$3.04 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Agenus

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Agenus' five analysts is for revenues of US$209.7m in 2024. This reflects a major 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 19% from last year to US$9.21. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$284.1m and US$7.75 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The average price target fell 50% to US$44.25, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Agenus' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Agenus at US$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Agenus' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Agenus' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 42% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Agenus to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Agenus' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Agenus analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Agenus you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.