ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.5% to US$23.24 in the past week. The statutory results were mixed overall, with revenues of US$726m in line with analyst forecasts, but losses of US$0.37 per share, some 2.9% larger than the analysts were predicting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering ACADIA Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$967.3m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 33% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.62 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$963.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.05 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$33.65, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$44.00 and the most bearish at US$13.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 33% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.65, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.